TTE

TotalEnergies SE Energy - Oil & Gas Investor Relations →

NO
35.9% ABOVE
↓ Approaching Was 49.2% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $59.19
14-Week RSI 48
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 1.4x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 1.13

TotalEnergies SE (TTE) closed at $80.43 as of 2026-06-19, trading 35.9% above its 200-week moving average of $59.19. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 49.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 48, indicating neutral momentum.

Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.13 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 1760 weeks of data, TTE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times. On average, these episodes lasted 9 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TTE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.1%.

With a market cap of $178.8 billion, TTE is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.6%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 12.5%. The stock trades at 1.5x book value.

The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 13.7% over the past three years.

Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TTE would have grown to $3343, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.0% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming TTE as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.

Free cash flow has been declining at a -31% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: TTE vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After TTE Crosses Below the Line?

Across 34 historical episodes, buying TTE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.4% after 12 months (median +7.0%), compared to +8.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 76% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +31.6% vs +25.9% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TTE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TTE would reach each dislocation threshold.

Current Bean Score +0.98σ
Current FCF Yield 5.47%
Baseline Yield 5.31%
Historical σ 0.78pp

Dislocation Price Levels

Prices where TTE's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-23.

LevelσPriceSignal
Deep Value+2σ$77.50Unusually cheap — potential buy zone
Value+1σ$88.49Cheap vs. own history
Fair Value+0σ$103.10Historical mean behavior
Expensive-1σ$123.49Expensive vs. own history
Deep Expensive-2σ$153.93Unusually expensive — potential trim zone

Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end

Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 22 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

11 / 13 weeks minimum

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from TTE's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

⚠ Earnings quality deteriorating — net income is outrunning free cash flow vs this company's own norm. Cheapness signals here deserve extra scrutiny.
Yield Dislocation -2.23σ Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score -0.80σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative -0.90σ Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration +0.1pp YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity N/A TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History -9.6pp Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Deteriorating Accrual gap trend (+3.2pp of revenue)

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

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Historical Touches

TTE has crossed below its 200-week MA 34 times with an average 1-year return of +11.1% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Sep 1992Oct 199236.6%+30.3%+3104.6%
Nov 1992Feb 1993169.4%+19.7%+2942.6%
Sep 2001Sep 200111.7%+6.7%+845.2%
Nov 2001Nov 200110.2%+13.2%+818.6%
Sep 2002Sep 200212.5%+23.9%+785.6%
Nov 2002Dec 200231.5%+24.8%+755.8%
Jan 2003Apr 2003146.4%+46.6%+783.7%
Sep 2008Sep 200810.1%-5.2%+254.9%
Sep 2008Oct 20095429.1%+7.4%+303.7%
Oct 2009Nov 200912.9%-3.8%+257.9%
Jan 2010Jan 20115123.3%+2.6%+248.3%
Jun 2011Jun 201121.0%-14.4%+252.5%
Jul 2011Oct 20111420.9%-12.9%+253.6%
Oct 2011Dec 201189.6%+4.5%+266.8%
Jan 2012Jan 201211.9%+13.1%+272.9%
Apr 2012Jul 20121613.1%+8.8%+282.2%
Apr 2013Apr 201311.2%+55.0%+269.7%
Dec 2014Dec 201410.1%-3.7%+216.2%
Jan 2015Jan 201511.8%-11.5%+221.2%
Mar 2015Mar 201515.1%+6.9%+231.3%
Jun 2015Jul 201510.9%+6.4%+212.6%
Jul 2015Oct 20151110.9%+5.1%+217.3%
Oct 2015Nov 201532.2%+6.0%+210.2%
Nov 2015Apr 20162016.3%+5.9%+212.9%
May 2016Aug 2016145.2%+14.6%+201.9%
Sep 2016Oct 201645.7%+24.2%+213.0%
Oct 2016Dec 201654.8%+27.4%+202.8%
Aug 2019Aug 201920.6%-11.9%+155.0%
Jan 2020Feb 202010.4%-5.9%+145.1%
Feb 2020Feb 20215248.0%+1.8%+148.2%
Apr 2021May 202110.2%+17.2%+143.6%
Jul 2021Aug 202134.4%+19.7%+149.7%
Aug 2021Aug 202112.9%+31.7%+148.3%
Sep 2021Sep 202111.6%+24.1%+144.9%
Average9+11.1%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is TTE below its 200-week moving average?

No. TotalEnergies SE (TTE) is currently 35.9% above its 200-week moving average of $59.19. It would need to fall to $59.19 to cross below the line.

What is TTE's 200-week moving average price?

TotalEnergies SE's 200-week moving average is $59.19 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when TTE drops below its 200-week moving average?

TTE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 9 weeks on average.

Is TTE a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about TTE as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 48. Free cash flow yield is 5.6%. Return on equity is 12.5%. Price-to-book is 1.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does TTE compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in TTE would have grown to $3343, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 11.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. TTE has outperformed the broader market over this period.

Does TTE pay a dividend?

Yes. TotalEnergies SE currently pays a dividend yield of 501.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-06-19