TTE
TotalEnergies SE Energy - Oil & Gas Investor Relations →
TotalEnergies SE (TTE) closed at $87.86 as of 2026-07-31, trading 45.2% above its 200-week moving average of $60.49. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 44.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 48, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.09 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1766 weeks of data, TTE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 33 times. On average, these episodes lasted 10 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TTE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +12.1%.
With a market cap of $195.1 billion, TTE is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.9%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 14.5%. The stock trades at 1.5x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 13.7% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TTE would have grown to $3652, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.3% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming TTE as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -31% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TTE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TTE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 33 historical episodes, buying TTE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +11.5% after 12 months (median +7.0%), compared to +9.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 79% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +31.9% vs +26.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TTE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TTE would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TTE's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $72.95 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $83.74 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $98.28 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $118.92 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $150.54 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TTE's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TTE has crossed below its 200-week MA 33 times with an average 1-year return of +12.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1992 | Oct 1992 | 3 | 6.6% | +30.3% | +3400.6% |
| Nov 1992 | Feb 1993 | 16 | 9.4% | +19.7% | +3223.6% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 1.7% | +6.7% | +932.5% |
| Nov 2001 | Nov 2001 | 1 | 0.2% | +13.2% | +903.4% |
| Sep 2002 | Sep 2002 | 1 | 2.5% | +23.9% | +867.4% |
| Nov 2002 | Dec 2002 | 3 | 1.6% | +24.8% | +834.8% |
| Jan 2003 | Apr 2003 | 14 | 6.4% | +46.6% | +865.3% |
| Sep 2008 | Sep 2008 | 1 | 0.2% | -5.2% | +287.7% |
| Sep 2008 | Oct 2009 | 55 | 29.2% | -3.8% | +285.3% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 1 | 3.0% | -3.8% | +291.0% |
| Jan 2010 | Jan 2011 | 51 | 23.1% | +2.6% | +280.5% |
| Jun 2011 | Jun 2011 | 2 | 1.1% | -12.9% | +285.1% |
| Jul 2011 | Oct 2011 | 14 | 21.0% | -12.9% | +286.3% |
| Oct 2011 | Dec 2011 | 8 | 9.7% | +4.5% | +300.7% |
| Jan 2012 | Jan 2012 | 1 | 2.0% | +13.1% | +307.3% |
| Apr 2012 | Jul 2012 | 16 | 13.2% | +8.8% | +317.5% |
| Nov 2012 | Nov 2012 | 1 | 0.0% | +34.1% | +307.8% |
| Apr 2013 | Apr 2013 | 1 | 1.3% | +55.0% | +303.8% |
| Jan 2015 | Jan 2015 | 1 | 1.9% | -11.5% | +250.9% |
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2015 | 1 | 5.2% | +6.9% | +261.9% |
| Jun 2015 | Jul 2015 | 1 | 1.0% | +6.4% | +241.5% |
| Jul 2015 | Oct 2015 | 11 | 11.0% | +5.1% | +246.6% |
| Oct 2015 | Apr 2016 | 25 | 16.4% | +6.0% | +238.9% |
| May 2016 | Aug 2016 | 14 | 5.3% | +14.6% | +229.8% |
| Sep 2016 | Oct 2016 | 4 | 5.8% | +24.2% | +241.9% |
| Oct 2016 | Dec 2016 | 5 | 4.9% | +27.4% | +230.8% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 2 | 0.7% | -11.9% | +178.6% |
| Jan 2020 | Feb 2020 | 1 | 0.5% | -5.9% | +167.8% |
| Feb 2020 | Feb 2021 | 52 | 48.0% | +1.8% | +171.1% |
| Apr 2021 | May 2021 | 1 | 0.3% | +17.2% | +166.1% |
| Jul 2021 | Aug 2021 | 3 | 4.5% | +19.7% | +172.7% |
| Aug 2021 | Aug 2021 | 1 | 3.0% | +31.7% | +171.3% |
| Sep 2021 | Sep 2021 | 1 | 1.7% | +24.1% | +167.5% |
| Average | 10 | — | +12.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TTE below its 200-week moving average?
No. TotalEnergies SE (TTE) is currently 45.2% above its 200-week moving average of $60.49. It would need to fall to $60.49 to cross below the line.
What is TTE's 200-week moving average price?
TotalEnergies SE's 200-week moving average is $60.49 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TTE drops below its 200-week moving average?
TTE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 33 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +12.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 10 weeks on average.
Is TTE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TTE as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 48. Free cash flow yield is 6.9%. Return on equity is 14.5%. Price-to-book is 1.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TTE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in TTE would have grown to $3652, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 11.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. TTE has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TTE pay a dividend?
Yes. TotalEnergies SE currently pays a dividend yield of 487.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31