TTD
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The Trade Desk Inc. (TTD) closed at $27.04 as of 2026-02-02, trading 62.1% below its 200-week moving average of $71.32. This places TTD in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -57.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 11, TTD is in oversold territory.
Over the past 441 weeks of data, TTD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TTD at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +107.6%.
With a market cap of $13.2 billion, TTD is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.1%. Return on equity stands at 16.8%, a solid level. The stock trades at 5.0x book value.
Share count has increased 2.6% over three years, indicating dilution. TTD passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 8.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TTD would have grown to $504, compared to $319 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 20.7% vs 14.5% for the index — confirming TTD as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 25.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Growth of $100: TTD vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TTD Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying TTD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +76.2% after 12 months (median +71.0%), compared to +16.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +168.2% vs +38.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TTD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
TTD has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +107.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2018 | Feb 2018 | 1 | 1.3% | +241.5% | +531.8% |
| Jun 2022 | Aug 2022 | 7 | 10.7% | +65.1% | -41.6% |
| Oct 2022 | Feb 2023 | 15 | 18.6% | +71.0% | -41.5% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 1 | 0.1% | +52.9% | -49.3% |
| Feb 2025 | Jul 2025 | 21 | 39.6% | N/A | -62.5% |
| Aug 2025 | Ongoing | 27+ | 62.1% | Ongoing | -50.1% |
| Average | 12 | — | +107.6% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02