TTC
The Toro Company Industrials - Lawn Equipment Investor Relations →
The Toro Company (TTC) closed at $91.87 as of 2026-07-31, trading 6.3% above its 200-week moving average of $86.46. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 8.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 46, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.99 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2371 weeks of data, TTC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 22 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TTC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +13.9%.
Return on equity stands at 23.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TTC would have grown to $12745, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.5% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming TTC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 55.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TTC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TTC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying TTC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +11.3% after 12 months (median +20.0%), compared to +8.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 56% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +26.3% vs +23.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TTC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TTC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TTC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-09-03.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $87.30 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $91.15 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $95.36 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $99.98 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $105.07 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TTC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TTC has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +13.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Nov 1982 | 89 | 47.1% | -36.6% | +39014.8% |
| Nov 1982 | Dec 1982 | 5 | 2.0% | +7.4% | +39497.7% |
| Aug 1983 | Nov 1983 | 16 | 9.2% | +6.1% | +39014.8% |
| Mar 1984 | Mar 1984 | 1 | 2.6% | +69.1% | +39497.7% |
| Apr 1984 | May 1984 | 4 | 1.5% | +46.3% | +39014.8% |
| Nov 1987 | Dec 1987 | 2 | 11.1% | +58.4% | +21732.1% |
| Aug 1990 | Mar 1991 | 28 | 39.9% | -3.5% | +13659.8% |
| Apr 1991 | Jan 1993 | 92 | 36.9% | -9.0% | +13371.8% |
| Jun 1993 | Jun 1993 | 2 | 1.5% | +45.2% | +13213.8% |
| Jul 1998 | Apr 1999 | 38 | 47.5% | +13.3% | +6452.2% |
| Nov 1999 | Dec 1999 | 3 | 2.1% | +6.7% | +6121.4% |
| Feb 2000 | Jun 2000 | 17 | 9.5% | +21.9% | +6526.6% |
| Jun 2000 | Oct 2000 | 18 | 10.4% | +38.2% | +6063.6% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 1 | 1.4% | -21.9% | +1013.3% |
| Mar 2008 | Dec 2009 | 93 | 51.2% | -43.6% | +986.3% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 4 | 8.5% | +52.5% | +1040.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 7.1% | +81.7% | +76.5% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 3 | 5.4% | +34.6% | +23.7% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 5 | 6.5% | +31.3% | +31.0% |
| Sep 2023 | Dec 2023 | 15 | 11.8% | +1.2% | +17.7% |
| Jan 2024 | Jan 2024 | 1 | 1.9% | -12.1% | +7.4% |
| Feb 2024 | Jun 2024 | 14 | 14.3% | -11.4% | +4.5% |
| Jun 2024 | Jul 2024 | 3 | 5.9% | -23.3% | +2.1% |
| Jul 2024 | Jan 2026 | 75 | 27.5% | -18.1% | +5.0% |
| Average | 22 | — | +13.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TTC below its 200-week moving average?
No. The Toro Company (TTC) is currently 6.3% above its 200-week moving average of $86.46. It would need to fall to $86.46 to cross below the line.
What is TTC's 200-week moving average price?
The Toro Company's 200-week moving average is $86.46 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TTC drops below its 200-week moving average?
TTC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +13.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 22 weeks on average.
Is TTC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TTC as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 46. Return on equity is 23.9%. Price-to-book is 6.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TTC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in TTC would have grown to $12745, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 15.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. TTC has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TTC pay a dividend?
Yes. The Toro Company currently pays a dividend yield of 170.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31