TT
Trane Technologies plc Industrials - HVAC Investor Relations →
Trane Technologies plc (TT) closed at $429.11 as of 2026-09-18, trading 31.0% above its 200-week moving average of $327.64. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 35.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 41, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.78 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2378 weeks of data, TT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.0%.
With a market cap of $94.4 billion, TT is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.3%. Return on equity stands at 36.6%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 11.0x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TT would have grown to $10678, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.8% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming TT as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 32.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying TT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +19.6% after 12 months (median +37.0%), compared to +2.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 81% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +42.5% vs +12.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TT would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TT's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $429.19 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $458.64 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $492.42 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $531.57 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $577.48 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $4.26 | $4.31 | +1.1% |
| 2026-04-30 | $2.53 | $2.63 | +3.9% |
| 2026-01-29 | $2.81 | $2.86 | +1.6% |
| 2025-10-30 | $3.78 | $3.88 | +2.7% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TT's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TT has crossed below its 200-week MA 21 times with an average 1-year return of +11.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1981 | Jun 1983 | 104 | 38.0% | -39.0% | +40292.8% |
| Jul 1983 | Sep 1983 | 8 | 6.4% | -25.3% | +47682.9% |
| Oct 1983 | Jan 1984 | 12 | 14.0% | -4.4% | +53700.6% |
| Jan 1984 | Jan 1985 | 49 | 27.0% | -3.1% | +47584.5% |
| Oct 1990 | Jan 1991 | 16 | 22.2% | +48.8% | +22756.5% |
| Feb 1995 | Mar 1995 | 3 | 2.1% | +39.9% | +11337.8% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 6 | 15.8% | +14.6% | +5313.2% |
| Apr 2000 | Apr 2000 | 1 | 1.4% | +3.2% | +4925.9% |
| Jun 2000 | Aug 2000 | 10 | 12.7% | +13.0% | +5093.1% |
| Sep 2000 | Apr 2001 | 31 | 26.5% | -10.1% | +4827.9% |
| Jun 2001 | Feb 2002 | 34 | 31.3% | +3.9% | +4496.4% |
| Jul 2002 | Apr 2003 | 43 | 26.6% | +7.3% | +4405.8% |
| Jan 2008 | Feb 2008 | 6 | 6.7% | -50.3% | +2418.6% |
| Jun 2008 | Nov 2009 | 74 | 68.5% | -39.9% | +2232.0% |
| Jan 2010 | Mar 2010 | 6 | 10.5% | +43.2% | +2644.8% |
| Mar 2010 | Mar 2010 | 1 | 0.2% | +40.1% | +2466.7% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 3 | 3.9% | +42.4% | +2563.3% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 1 | 2.3% | -6.0% | +2521.6% |
| Aug 2011 | Jan 2012 | 23 | 19.7% | +35.8% | +2663.4% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 1 | 1.0% | +59.1% | +1196.9% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 0.6% | +57.2% | +272.2% |
| Average | 21 | — | +11.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TT below its 200-week moving average?
No. Trane Technologies plc (TT) is currently 31.0% above its 200-week moving average of $327.64. It would need to fall to $327.64 to cross below the line.
What is TT's 200-week moving average price?
Trane Technologies plc's 200-week moving average is $327.64 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TT drops below its 200-week moving average?
TT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 21 weeks on average.
Is TT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TT as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 41. Free cash flow yield is 3.3%. Return on equity is 36.6%. Price-to-book is 11.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in TT would have grown to $10678, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 14.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. TT has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TT pay a dividend?
Yes. Trane Technologies plc currently pays a dividend yield of 98.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18