TSN
Tyson Foods, Inc. Consumer Defensive - Farm Products Investor Relations →
Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) closed at $52.77 as of 2026-09-18, trading 1.9% below its 200-week moving average of $53.81. This places TSN in the below line zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -1.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 37, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.98 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2378 weeks of data, TSN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times. On average, these episodes lasted 22 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TSN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +27.9%.
With a market cap of $18.6 billion, TSN is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.4%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 3.3%. The stock trades at 1.0x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TSN would have grown to $541, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. TSN has returned 5.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $1,001,617. Notably, these purchases occurred while TSN is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TSN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TSN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 24 historical episodes, buying TSN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +16.4% after 12 months (median +22.0%), compared to +15.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +19.2% vs +28.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TSN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TSN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TSN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-09.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $50.79 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $53.24 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $55.94 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $58.93 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $62.25 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | $0.99 | $0.99 | +0.3% |
| 2026-05-04 | $0.78 | $0.87 | +11.6% |
| 2026-02-02 | $0.94 | $0.97 | +3.1% |
| 2025-11-10 | $0.83 | $1.15 | +37.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TSN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TSN has crossed below its 200-week MA 34 times with an average 1-year return of +27.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1981 | Feb 1982 | 25 | 20.0% | +23.6% | +2707.8% |
| Apr 1983 | Nov 1983 | 32 | 35.0% | +25.9% | +2562.5% |
| Jan 1984 | Jan 1984 | 1 | 1.5% | +114.3% | +2351.2% |
| Jan 1984 | Mar 1984 | 9 | 7.3% | +121.9% | +2312.9% |
| Jul 1984 | Jul 1984 | 1 | 0.1% | +53.7% | +2204.9% |
| Aug 1984 | Aug 1984 | 2 | 1.8% | +40.3% | +2204.9% |
| Apr 1985 | Apr 1985 | 2 | 4.5% | +41.1% | +2015.4% |
| Oct 1987 | Jun 1988 | 35 | 37.7% | +4.9% | +1508.3% |
| Aug 1988 | May 1989 | 41 | 15.1% | +34.0% | +1317.7% |
| Apr 1994 | Apr 1994 | 1 | 2.2% | +24.4% | +562.8% |
| Apr 1994 | May 1994 | 2 | 1.2% | +22.2% | +554.3% |
| Dec 1994 | Dec 1994 | 1 | 0.2% | +23.9% | +504.3% |
| Feb 1996 | Mar 1996 | 4 | 2.5% | +35.6% | +462.9% |
| Apr 1996 | Apr 1996 | 1 | 1.9% | +25.3% | +469.3% |
| Aug 1998 | Aug 1998 | 1 | 3.1% | -5.0% | +373.3% |
| Mar 1999 | Mar 1999 | 1 | 2.3% | -42.2% | +348.4% |
| Jul 1999 | May 2002 | 148 | 53.1% | -48.5% | +344.9% |
| Jul 2002 | Sep 2003 | 61 | 39.9% | -19.6% | +475.9% |
| Jan 2006 | May 2006 | 13 | 10.8% | +28.1% | +437.0% |
| Jun 2006 | Jun 2006 | 1 | 1.7% | +56.7% | +426.5% |
| Jul 2006 | Sep 2006 | 9 | 9.6% | +65.4% | +428.6% |
| Oct 2006 | Nov 2006 | 4 | 5.9% | +16.9% | +423.6% |
| Oct 2007 | Mar 2008 | 24 | 22.0% | -33.8% | +347.8% |
| Jun 2008 | Feb 2010 | 87 | 69.9% | -16.5% | +363.2% |
| Jul 2012 | Jul 2012 | 2 | 1.6% | +82.0% | +374.4% |
| Aug 2012 | Aug 2012 | 1 | 1.8% | +110.9% | +372.5% |
| Jul 2018 | Aug 2018 | 1 | 0.5% | +41.2% | +15.5% |
| Nov 2018 | Jan 2019 | 8 | 13.1% | +50.0% | +12.7% |
| Feb 2019 | Feb 2019 | 1 | 1.6% | +38.2% | +11.2% |
| Feb 2020 | Nov 2020 | 40 | 22.6% | +2.5% | -5.2% |
| Dec 2020 | Feb 2021 | 9 | 3.4% | +34.7% | -3.0% |
| Sep 2022 | Aug 2024 | 101 | 31.3% | -24.4% | -13.4% |
| Sep 2024 | Dec 2025 | 65 | 14.2% | -7.1% | -8.0% |
| Aug 2026 | Ongoing | 3+ | 4.5% | Ongoing | +2.6% |
| Average | 22 | — | +27.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TSN below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) is trading 1.9% below its 200-week moving average of $53.81. The current price is $52.77.
What is TSN's 200-week moving average price?
Tyson Foods, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $53.81 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TSN drops below its 200-week moving average?
TSN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +27.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 22 weeks on average.
Is TSN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TSN as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 37. Free cash flow yield is 6.4%. Return on equity is 3.3%. Price-to-book is 1.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TSN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in TSN would have grown to $541, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 5.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. TSN has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TSN pay a dividend?
Yes. Tyson Foods, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 387.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18