TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Technology - Semiconductors Investor Relations →
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) closed at $348.85 as of 2026-02-02, trading 135.4% above its 200-week moving average of $148.17. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 125.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 68, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1430 weeks of data, TSM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TSM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +71.0%.
With a market cap of $1.8 trillion, TSM is a mega-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 34.2%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 35.2%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 52.9x book value.
TSM passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 27.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TSM would have grown to $22110, compared to $1096 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 21.7% vs 9.1% for the index — confirming TSM as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 48.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Growth of $100: TSM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TSM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying TSM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +72.9% after 12 months (median +29.0%), compared to +9.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 83% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +76.3% vs +20.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TSM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
TSM has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +71.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1998 | Nov 1998 | 8 | 29.1% | +229.9% | +18901.2% |
| Dec 1998 | Dec 1998 | 1 | 3.9% | +239.8% | +16259.7% |
| Dec 1998 | Jan 1999 | 1 | 2.4% | +290.1% | +15971.5% |
| Nov 2000 | Jan 2001 | 5 | 15.0% | +26.1% | +8088.0% |
| Feb 2001 | Apr 2001 | 7 | 13.3% | +12.4% | +7087.4% |
| May 2001 | Jun 2001 | 1 | 1.6% | +16.7% | +7181.3% |
| Jun 2001 | Jul 2001 | 5 | 5.1% | -0.9% | +7443.0% |
| Aug 2001 | Nov 2001 | 12 | 36.7% | -19.8% | +8520.6% |
| Jun 2002 | Jan 2005 | 139 | 62.4% | -18.4% | +7108.9% |
| Feb 2005 | May 2005 | 11 | 8.9% | +21.0% | +8319.2% |
| Sep 2005 | Sep 2005 | 1 | 1.9% | +28.2% | +8601.8% |
| Oct 2005 | Oct 2005 | 3 | 3.2% | +39.8% | +8656.6% |
| Sep 2008 | Mar 2009 | 25 | 26.0% | +29.1% | +6843.3% |
| Sep 2022 | Nov 2022 | 8 | 20.8% | +18.3% | +397.6% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 4 | 6.6% | +37.1% | +381.8% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 1.0% | +82.2% | +335.9% |
| Sep 2023 | Oct 2023 | 2 | 3.3% | +106.5% | +320.7% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 3.9% | +140.3% | +318.9% |
| Average | 13 | — | +71.0% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02