TSLA
Tesla Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Electric Vehicles Investor Relations →
Tesla Inc. (TSLA) closed at $411.11 as of 2026-02-02, trading 53.4% above its 200-week moving average of $268.06. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 60.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 41, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 766 weeks of data, TSLA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times. On average, these episodes lasted 7 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TSLA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +106.0%.
With a market cap of $1.5 trillion, TSLA is a mega-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.2%. Return on equity stands at 4.9%. The stock trades at 18.8x book value.
Share count has increased 18.6% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 14.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TSLA would have grown to $21250, compared to $681 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 43.8% vs 13.9% for the index — confirming TSLA as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 2 open-market purchases totaling $1,000,984,274.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -6.3% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: TSLA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TSLA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying TSLA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +102.7% after 12 months (median +61.0%), compared to +20.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 93% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +448.0% vs +43.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TSLA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
TSLA has crossed below its 200-week MA 15 times with an average 1-year return of +106.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2011 | Sep 2011 | 6 | 10.5% | +12.5% | +25340.0% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 1 | 1.9% | +20.0% | +25183.5% |
| Jan 2012 | Jan 2012 | 1 | 11.4% | +44.4% | +26958.6% |
| Jul 2012 | Aug 2012 | 1 | 0.3% | +406.1% | +22513.3% |
| Oct 2012 | Oct 2012 | 1 | 0.5% | +519.6% | +22422.5% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 1 | 3.8% | +78.3% | +3982.8% |
| Oct 2016 | Dec 2016 | 6 | 7.0% | +60.6% | +3136.1% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 3 | 1.5% | -11.7% | +2254.1% |
| Mar 2019 | Oct 2019 | 31 | 32.4% | +61.6% | +2231.2% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 6 | 31.6% | +68.7% | +173.7% |
| Apr 2023 | May 2023 | 5 | 7.9% | -10.9% | +149.0% |
| Jan 2024 | Jul 2024 | 24 | 35.2% | +101.0% | +93.7% |
| Jul 2024 | Sep 2024 | 8 | 14.3% | +43.8% | +87.0% |
| Oct 2024 | Oct 2024 | 2 | 7.8% | +89.8% | +88.8% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 3.8% | N/A | +71.7% |
| Average | 7 | — | +106.0% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02