TSCO
Tractor Supply Company Consumer Discretionary - Specialty Retail Investor Relations →
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) closed at $32.21 as of 2026-09-18, trading 30.6% below its 200-week moving average of $46.40. This places TSCO in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -28.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 54, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.26 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1652 weeks of data, TSCO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TSCO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.5%.
With a market cap of $16.8 billion, TSCO is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.6%. Return on equity stands at 39.5%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.4x book value.
Over the past 31.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TSCO would have grown to $14277, compared to $2807 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.9% vs 11.1% for the index — confirming TSCO as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 8.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TSCO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TSCO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying TSCO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +18.8% after 12 months (median -4.0%), compared to +12.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 47% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +66.6% vs +27.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TSCO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TSCO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TSCO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-22.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $17.89 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $21.22 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $26.09 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $33.85 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $48.19 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | $0.82 | $0.69 | -15.9% |
| 2026-04-21 | $0.34 | $0.31 | -9.4% |
| 2026-01-29 | $0.46 | $0.43 | -7.2% |
| 2025-10-23 | $0.48 | $0.49 | +1.7% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TSCO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TSCO has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +21.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1995 | Aug 1995 | 28 | 21.2% | -2.3% | +14669.0% |
| Aug 1995 | Jan 1996 | 23 | 30.8% | +2.2% | +14176.7% |
| Apr 1996 | May 1996 | 1 | 0.8% | -16.7% | +14176.7% |
| Jun 1996 | Aug 1996 | 8 | 8.8% | -21.4% | +14019.8% |
| Sep 1996 | Mar 1998 | 79 | 35.2% | -16.9% | +14337.1% |
| Aug 1998 | Oct 1998 | 6 | 5.9% | +8.5% | +15569.5% |
| Jul 1999 | Jul 2001 | 104 | 62.4% | -28.8% | +16373.1% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 5.3% | +245.0% | +17845.6% |
| Aug 2007 | Aug 2007 | 1 | 1.2% | -7.8% | +1652.6% |
| Sep 2007 | Sep 2007 | 1 | 0.9% | -5.3% | +1643.5% |
| Sep 2007 | Oct 2007 | 1 | 1.0% | -1.3% | +1642.4% |
| Oct 2007 | Jul 2009 | 91 | 38.0% | -22.4% | +1698.6% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 1 | 0.4% | +78.2% | +1696.6% |
| Sep 2016 | Nov 2016 | 11 | 15.7% | -10.4% | +177.2% |
| Jan 2017 | Dec 2017 | 47 | 32.1% | +8.2% | +154.1% |
| Jan 2018 | May 2018 | 17 | 20.9% | +30.1% | +173.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | 3.3% | +127.1% | +135.9% |
| Mar 2026 | Ongoing | 28+ | 36.7% | Ongoing | -30.8% |
| Average | 25 | — | +21.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TSCO below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) is trading 30.6% below its 200-week moving average of $46.40. The current price is $32.21.
What is TSCO's 200-week moving average price?
Tractor Supply Company's 200-week moving average is $46.40 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TSCO drops below its 200-week moving average?
TSCO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +21.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is TSCO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TSCO as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 54. Free cash flow yield is 0.6%. Return on equity is 39.5%. Price-to-book is 6.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TSCO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 31.8 years, $100 invested in TSCO would have grown to $14277, compared to $2807 for the S&P 500. That's 16.9% annualized vs 11.1% for the index. TSCO has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TSCO pay a dividend?
Yes. Tractor Supply Company currently pays a dividend yield of 298.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18