TSCO
Tractor Supply Company Consumer Discretionary - Specialty Retail Investor Relations →
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) closed at $55.61 as of 2026-02-02, trading 17.6% above its 200-week moving average of $47.27. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 7.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 54, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1620 weeks of data, TSCO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TSCO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.5%.
With a market cap of $29.4 billion, TSCO is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.8%. Return on equity stands at 45.2%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 11.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.9% over the past three years.
Over the past 31.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TSCO would have grown to $24174, compared to $2525 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 19.3% vs 10.9% for the index — confirming TSCO as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 7.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Growth of $100: TSCO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TSCO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying TSCO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +18.8% after 12 months (median -4.0%), compared to +12.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 47% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +66.6% vs +28.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TSCO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
TSCO has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +21.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1995 | Aug 1995 | 28 | 21.2% | -2.3% | +24907.7% |
| Aug 1995 | Jan 1996 | 23 | 30.8% | +2.2% | +24074.1% |
| Apr 1996 | May 1996 | 1 | 0.8% | -16.7% | +24074.1% |
| Jun 1996 | Aug 1996 | 8 | 8.8% | -21.4% | +23808.4% |
| Sep 1996 | Mar 1998 | 79 | 35.2% | -16.9% | +24345.7% |
| Aug 1998 | Oct 1998 | 6 | 5.9% | +8.5% | +26432.5% |
| Jul 1999 | Jul 2001 | 104 | 62.4% | -28.8% | +27793.1% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 5.3% | +245.0% | +30286.4% |
| Aug 2007 | Aug 2007 | 1 | 1.2% | -7.8% | +2867.7% |
| Sep 2007 | Sep 2007 | 1 | 0.9% | -5.3% | +2852.2% |
| Sep 2007 | Oct 2007 | 1 | 1.0% | -1.3% | +2850.3% |
| Oct 2007 | Jul 2009 | 91 | 38.0% | -22.4% | +2945.4% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 1 | 0.4% | +78.2% | +2942.0% |
| Sep 2016 | Nov 2016 | 11 | 15.7% | -10.4% | +369.4% |
| Jan 2017 | Dec 2017 | 47 | 32.1% | +8.2% | +330.3% |
| Jan 2018 | May 2018 | 17 | 20.9% | +30.1% | +363.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | 3.3% | +127.1% | +299.4% |
| Average | 25 | — | +21.5% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02