TRV
The Travelers Companies Inc. Financial Services - Insurance Investor Relations →
The Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV) closed at $307.81 as of 2026-06-19, trading 40.1% above its 200-week moving average of $219.75. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 38.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 55, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 2.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.17 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2591 weeks of data, TRV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 31 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TRV at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +25.8%.
With a market cap of $65.5 billion, TRV is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 20.3%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 25.3%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 2.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.3% over the past three years. TRV passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TRV would have grown to $3794, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.5% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming TRV as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 17.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TRV vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TRV Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying TRV when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +27.8% after 12 months (median +21.0%), compared to +5.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 88% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +47.6% vs +7.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TRV crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TRV would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TRV's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-16.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $283.23 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $291.85 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $301.00 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $310.75 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $321.15 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TRV's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TRV has crossed below its 200-week MA 31 times with an average 1-year return of +25.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1977 | Apr 1977 | 10 | 7.5% | -5.8% | +11212.2% |
| Sep 1977 | Apr 1978 | 30 | 13.4% | +16.5% | +11081.7% |
| May 1978 | Jun 1978 | 2 | 1.5% | +16.4% | +11256.4% |
| Jul 1978 | Jul 1978 | 1 | 0.2% | +19.4% | +11168.4% |
| Oct 1978 | Nov 1978 | 2 | 10.4% | +24.8% | +12324.1% |
| Feb 1980 | Mar 1980 | 6 | 9.3% | +15.8% | +10870.7% |
| Apr 1980 | May 1980 | 1 | 1.0% | +30.9% | +10471.8% |
| Oct 1980 | Nov 1980 | 1 | 0.3% | +42.9% | +10283.0% |
| Jun 1982 | Aug 1982 | 10 | 11.0% | +63.3% | +9188.3% |
| May 1984 | Jun 1984 | 3 | 2.7% | +36.9% | +7060.7% |
| Jul 1984 | Sep 1984 | 9 | 25.0% | +46.6% | +7392.9% |
| Sep 1984 | Dec 1984 | 12 | 11.8% | +30.0% | +6939.3% |
| Dec 1984 | Jan 1985 | 3 | 5.9% | +56.7% | +7060.7% |
| Jun 1986 | May 1989 | 155 | 42.5% | +7.9% | +8112.5% |
| Aug 1998 | Sep 1998 | 1 | 4.8% | +20.0% | +2028.6% |
| Jan 1999 | Feb 1999 | 4 | 6.5% | +8.3% | +1924.2% |
| Apr 1999 | May 1999 | 4 | 9.7% | +6.8% | +1854.9% |
| Jun 1999 | Jul 1999 | 2 | 9.1% | +12.7% | +1827.6% |
| Jul 1999 | Aug 1999 | 3 | 3.2% | +48.7% | +1823.7% |
| Sep 1999 | Nov 1999 | 6 | 17.9% | +81.1% | +1973.6% |
| Nov 1999 | Dec 1999 | 3 | 3.5% | +65.1% | +1798.9% |
| Jan 2000 | Apr 2000 | 14 | 30.5% | +47.0% | +1769.1% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 3.9% | -14.1% | +1494.5% |
| Jul 2002 | Dec 2003 | 74 | 28.1% | +2.7% | +1408.6% |
| Jul 2004 | Dec 2004 | 21 | 16.4% | +18.0% | +1342.5% |
| Jan 2005 | Jan 2005 | 1 | 1.3% | +27.1% | +1303.4% |
| Mar 2005 | May 2005 | 6 | 5.9% | +16.9% | +1293.1% |
| Jul 2008 | Jul 2008 | 1 | 3.8% | +5.2% | +1010.0% |
| Aug 2008 | Sep 2008 | 2 | 2.5% | +15.7% | +964.0% |
| Sep 2008 | Aug 2009 | 45 | 31.1% | +11.7% | +960.5% |
| Feb 2020 | Nov 2020 | 36 | 27.4% | +24.8% | +194.1% |
| Average | 15 | — | +25.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TRV below its 200-week moving average?
No. The Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV) is currently 40.1% above its 200-week moving average of $219.75. It would need to fall to $219.75 to cross below the line.
What is TRV's 200-week moving average price?
The Travelers Companies Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $219.75 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TRV drops below its 200-week moving average?
TRV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 31 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +25.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 15 weeks on average.
Is TRV a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TRV as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 55. Free cash flow yield is 20.3%. Return on equity is 25.3%. Price-to-book is 2.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TRV compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in TRV would have grown to $3794, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 11.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. TRV has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TRV pay a dividend?
Yes. The Travelers Companies Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 163.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19