TRV
The Travelers Companies Inc. Financial Services - Insurance Investor Relations →
The Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV) closed at $301.49 as of 2026-02-02, trading 45.1% above its 200-week moving average of $207.78. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 37.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 66, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 2572 weeks of data, TRV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 31 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TRV at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +25.8%.
With a market cap of $67.3 billion, TRV is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 15.4%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 20.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 2.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.1% over the past three years. TRV passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TRV would have grown to $3688, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.5% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming TRV as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 7.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Growth of $100: TRV vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TRV Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying TRV when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +27.8% after 12 months (median +21.0%), compared to +5.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 88% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +47.6% vs +7.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TRV crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
TRV has crossed below its 200-week MA 31 times with an average 1-year return of +25.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1977 | Apr 1977 | 10 | 7.5% | -5.8% | +10893.8% |
| Sep 1977 | Apr 1978 | 30 | 13.4% | +16.5% | +10766.9% |
| May 1978 | Jun 1978 | 2 | 1.5% | +16.4% | +10936.7% |
| Jul 1978 | Jul 1978 | 1 | 0.2% | +19.4% | +10851.2% |
| Oct 1978 | Nov 1978 | 2 | 10.4% | +24.8% | +11974.4% |
| Feb 1980 | Mar 1980 | 6 | 9.3% | +15.8% | +10561.9% |
| Apr 1980 | May 1980 | 1 | 1.0% | +30.9% | +10174.2% |
| Oct 1980 | Nov 1980 | 1 | 0.3% | +42.9% | +9990.7% |
| Jun 1982 | Aug 1982 | 10 | 11.0% | +63.3% | +8926.8% |
| May 1984 | Jun 1984 | 3 | 2.7% | +36.9% | +6859.1% |
| Jul 1984 | Sep 1984 | 9 | 25.0% | +46.6% | +7182.0% |
| Sep 1984 | Dec 1984 | 12 | 11.8% | +30.0% | +6741.2% |
| Dec 1984 | Jan 1985 | 3 | 5.9% | +56.7% | +6859.1% |
| Jun 1986 | May 1989 | 155 | 42.5% | +7.9% | +7881.4% |
| Aug 1998 | Sep 1998 | 1 | 4.8% | +20.0% | +1968.7% |
| Jan 1999 | Feb 1999 | 4 | 6.5% | +8.3% | +1867.2% |
| Apr 1999 | May 1999 | 4 | 9.7% | +6.8% | +1799.9% |
| Jun 1999 | Jul 1999 | 2 | 9.1% | +12.7% | +1773.3% |
| Jul 1999 | Aug 1999 | 3 | 3.2% | +48.7% | +1769.5% |
| Sep 1999 | Nov 1999 | 6 | 17.9% | +81.1% | +1915.2% |
| Nov 1999 | Dec 1999 | 3 | 3.5% | +65.1% | +1745.4% |
| Jan 2000 | Apr 2000 | 14 | 30.5% | +47.0% | +1716.5% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 3.9% | -14.1% | +1449.6% |
| Jul 2002 | Dec 2003 | 74 | 28.1% | +2.7% | +1366.1% |
| Jul 2004 | Dec 2004 | 21 | 16.4% | +18.0% | +1301.9% |
| Jan 2005 | Jan 2005 | 1 | 1.3% | +27.1% | +1263.9% |
| Mar 2005 | May 2005 | 6 | 5.9% | +16.9% | +1253.9% |
| Jul 2008 | Jul 2008 | 1 | 3.8% | +5.2% | +978.8% |
| Aug 2008 | Sep 2008 | 2 | 2.5% | +15.7% | +934.1% |
| Sep 2008 | Aug 2009 | 45 | 31.1% | +11.7% | +930.6% |
| Feb 2020 | Nov 2020 | 36 | 27.4% | +24.8% | +185.9% |
| Average | 15 | — | +25.8% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02