TPL
Texas Pacific Land Corporation Energy - Land & Royalties Investor Relations →
Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) closed at $355.11 as of 2026-06-19, trading 24.5% above its 200-week moving average of $285.17. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 33.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 17, TPL is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.75 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2365 weeks of data, TPL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times. On average, these episodes lasted 29 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TPL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +30.8%.
With a market cap of $24.5 billion, TPL is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 36.5%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 15.7x book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TPL would have grown to $131026, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 23.9% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming TPL as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -57.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TPL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TPL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying TPL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +62.8% after 12 months (median +20.0%), compared to +12.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 79% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +90.1% vs +22.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TPL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TPL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TPL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $334.60 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $409.65 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $528.10 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $742.89 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $1252.22 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TPL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TPL has crossed below its 200-week MA 25 times with an average 1-year return of +30.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1981 | Nov 1983 | 138 | 50.1% | -45.6% | +55515.0% |
| Feb 1984 | Mar 1984 | 5 | 2.5% | -7.5% | +74606.8% |
| Apr 1984 | Apr 1984 | 1 | 0.1% | -8.1% | +74053.3% |
| Jan 1985 | Jan 1985 | 1 | 4.7% | N/A | +85461.6% |
| Jul 1985 | Aug 1985 | 1 | 0.1% | -8.0% | +84378.5% |
| Sep 1985 | Nov 1985 | 8 | 2.1% | -3.8% | +85461.6% |
| Jan 1986 | May 1987 | 69 | 18.8% | -10.4% | +86949.6% |
| Sep 1987 | Sep 1987 | 2 | 0.9% | +2.3% | +81418.6% |
| Oct 1987 | Mar 1988 | 24 | 19.1% | +5.8% | +84932.4% |
| Apr 1990 | May 1990 | 1 | 2.5% | -14.4% | +80629.0% |
| Jun 1990 | Apr 1994 | 200 | 36.0% | -18.1% | +81322.0% |
| May 1994 | Jul 1994 | 6 | 5.4% | +10.9% | +113433.4% |
| Dec 1994 | Mar 1995 | 15 | 8.9% | +23.1% | +114917.5% |
| Dec 1999 | Dec 1999 | 1 | 0.4% | -5.9% | +53226.1% |
| Dec 1999 | Jun 2000 | 24 | 10.5% | -6.0% | +53574.1% |
| Jul 2000 | May 2002 | 93 | 16.1% | +1.6% | +53418.3% |
| Jun 2002 | Jun 2002 | 2 | 1.5% | +30.1% | +50600.9% |
| Jul 2002 | Oct 2002 | 15 | 7.3% | +25.2% | +51790.8% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 1 | 0.1% | -42.4% | +11128.5% |
| Oct 2008 | Sep 2010 | 103 | 50.9% | +30.0% | +15665.1% |
| Jan 2011 | Jan 2011 | 1 | 0.4% | +20.7% | +10302.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 4 | 30.1% | +234.6% | +691.6% |
| Apr 2020 | May 2020 | 2 | 2.7% | +200.3% | +593.4% |
| Jul 2020 | Aug 2020 | 1 | 1.4% | +185.4% | +548.9% |
| Aug 2020 | Nov 2020 | 12 | 18.9% | +171.3% | +550.6% |
| Average | 29 | — | +30.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TPL below its 200-week moving average?
No. Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) is currently 24.5% above its 200-week moving average of $285.17. It would need to fall to $285.17 to cross below the line.
What is TPL's 200-week moving average price?
Texas Pacific Land Corporation's 200-week moving average is $285.17 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TPL drops below its 200-week moving average?
TPL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +30.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 29 weeks on average.
Is TPL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TPL as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 17 (oversold). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 36.5%. Price-to-book is 15.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TPL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in TPL would have grown to $131026, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 23.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. TPL has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TPL pay a dividend?
Yes. Texas Pacific Land Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 67.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19