TPL
Texas Pacific Land Corporation Energy - Land & Royalties Investor Relations →
Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) closed at $352.67 as of 2026-09-18, trading 19.5% above its 200-week moving average of $295.10. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 25.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 45, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.2x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 2378 weeks of data, TPL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times. On average, these episodes lasted 29 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TPL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +30.9%.
With a market cap of $24.3 billion, TPL is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 36.6%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 14.5x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TPL would have grown to $130335, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 23.7% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming TPL as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -57.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TPL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TPL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying TPL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +62.8% after 12 months (median +20.0%), compared to +12.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 79% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +90.1% vs +21.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TPL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TPL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TPL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $345.72 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $362.44 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $380.86 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $401.25 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $423.94 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $2.18 | $2.23 | +2.1% |
| 2026-05-06 | $2.02 | $2.07 | +2.5% |
| 2026-02-18 | $3.60 | $1.79 | -50.2% |
| 2025-11-05 | $1.92 | $1.76 | -8.7% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TPL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TPL has crossed below its 200-week MA 25 times with an average 1-year return of +30.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1981 | Nov 1983 | 138 | 50.1% | -45.6% | +55221.5% |
| Feb 1984 | Mar 1984 | 5 | 2.5% | -7.5% | +74212.6% |
| Apr 1984 | Apr 1984 | 1 | 0.1% | -8.1% | +73662.1% |
| Jan 1985 | Jan 1985 | 1 | 4.7% | N/A | +85010.1% |
| Jul 1985 | Aug 1985 | 1 | 0.1% | -8.0% | +83932.8% |
| Sep 1985 | Nov 1985 | 8 | 2.1% | -3.8% | +85010.1% |
| Jan 1986 | May 1987 | 69 | 18.8% | -10.4% | +86490.2% |
| Sep 1987 | Sep 1987 | 2 | 0.9% | +2.3% | +80988.5% |
| Oct 1987 | Mar 1988 | 24 | 19.1% | +5.8% | +84483.7% |
| Apr 1990 | May 1990 | 1 | 2.5% | -14.4% | +80203.0% |
| Jun 1990 | Apr 1994 | 200 | 36.0% | -18.1% | +80892.4% |
| May 1994 | Jul 1994 | 6 | 5.4% | +10.9% | +112834.3% |
| Dec 1994 | Mar 1995 | 15 | 8.9% | +23.1% | +114310.6% |
| Dec 1999 | Dec 1999 | 1 | 0.4% | -5.9% | +52944.7% |
| Dec 1999 | Jun 2000 | 24 | 10.5% | -6.0% | +53290.8% |
| Jul 2000 | May 2002 | 93 | 16.1% | +1.6% | +53135.9% |
| Jun 2002 | Jun 2002 | 2 | 1.5% | +30.1% | +50333.4% |
| Jul 2002 | Oct 2002 | 15 | 7.3% | +25.2% | +51516.9% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 1 | 0.1% | -41.7% | +11069.2% |
| Oct 2008 | Sep 2010 | 103 | 51.0% | +30.0% | +15581.9% |
| Jan 2011 | Jan 2011 | 1 | 0.4% | +20.7% | +10247.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 4 | 30.1% | +234.6% | +687.5% |
| Apr 2020 | May 2020 | 2 | 2.8% | +200.3% | +589.7% |
| Jul 2020 | Aug 2020 | 1 | 1.4% | +185.4% | +545.5% |
| Aug 2020 | Nov 2020 | 12 | 18.9% | +171.3% | +547.2% |
| Average | 29 | — | +30.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TPL below its 200-week moving average?
No. Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) is currently 19.5% above its 200-week moving average of $295.10. It would need to fall to $295.10 to cross below the line.
What is TPL's 200-week moving average price?
Texas Pacific Land Corporation's 200-week moving average is $295.10 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TPL drops below its 200-week moving average?
TPL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +30.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 29 weeks on average.
Is TPL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TPL as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 45. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 36.6%. Price-to-book is 14.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TPL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in TPL would have grown to $130335, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 23.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. TPL has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TPL pay a dividend?
Yes. Texas Pacific Land Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 68.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18