TPG
TPG Inc. Financial Services - Private Equity Investor Relations →
TPG Inc. (TPG) closed at $47.69 as of 2026-09-11, trading 12.5% above its 200-week moving average of $42.40. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 24.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 62, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.01 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 195 weeks of data, TPG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times. On average, these episodes lasted 3 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TPG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +78.7%.
With a market cap of $18.6 billion, TPG is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 18.6%, a solid level. The stock trades at 6.8x book value.
Share count has increased 93.2% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 3.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TPG would have grown to $199, compared to $209 for the S&P 500. TPG has returned 19.7% annualized vs 21.2% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -9.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TPG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TPG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying TPG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +74.5% after 12 months (median +62.0%), compared to +27.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +102.2% vs +48.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TPG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TPG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TPG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $40.54 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $43.37 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $46.64 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $50.43 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $54.90 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | $0.57 | $0.39 | -31.9% |
| 2026-04-30 | $0.64 | $-0.05 | -107.8% |
| 2026-02-05 | $0.68 | $0.29 | -57.2% |
| 2025-11-04 | $0.57 | $0.53 | -7.0% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TPG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TPG has crossed below its 200-week MA 9 times with an average 1-year return of +78.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 2 | 3.9% | +62.7% | +97.0% |
| Mar 2023 | Apr 2023 | 5 | 6.2% | +63.6% | +89.2% |
| Apr 2023 | Jun 2023 | 6 | 10.6% | +57.7% | +88.5% |
| Jun 2023 | Jun 2023 | 1 | 5.0% | +57.7% | +98.8% |
| Aug 2023 | Sep 2023 | 4 | 7.2% | +74.7% | +97.0% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 2 | 5.5% | +155.6% | +98.4% |
| Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | 5 | 7.0% | N/A | +20.6% |
| Jun 2026 | Jun 2026 | 1 | 0.7% | N/A | +17.0% |
| Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | 2 | 4.8% | N/A | +21.5% |
| Average | 3 | — | +78.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TPG below its 200-week moving average?
No. TPG Inc. (TPG) is currently 12.5% above its 200-week moving average of $42.40. It would need to fall to $42.40 to cross below the line.
What is TPG's 200-week moving average price?
TPG Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $42.40 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TPG drops below its 200-week moving average?
TPG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +78.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 3 weeks on average.
Is TPG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TPG as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 62. Return on equity is 18.6%. Price-to-book is 6.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TPG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 3.8 years, $100 invested in TPG would have grown to $199, compared to $209 for the S&P 500. That's 19.7% annualized vs 21.2% for the index. TPG has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TPG pay a dividend?
Yes. TPG Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 470.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11