TPG

TPG Inc. Financial Services - Private Equity Investor Relations →

NO
1.1% ABOVE
↓ Approaching Was 3.6% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $41.58
14-Week RSI 55
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 0.9x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 0.98

TPG Inc. (TPG) closed at $42.05 as of 2026-06-19, trading 1.1% above its 200-week moving average of $41.58. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 3.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 55, indicating neutral momentum.

Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.98 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 183 weeks of data, TPG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 3 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TPG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +78.7%.

With a market cap of $16.2 billion, TPG is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 10.8%. The stock trades at 5.7x book value.

Share count has increased 93.2% over three years, indicating dilution.

Over the past 3.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TPG would have grown to $174, compared to $205 for the S&P 500. TPG has returned 16.7% annualized vs 22.2% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.

Free cash flow has been declining at a -9.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: TPG vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After TPG Crosses Below the Line?

Across 7 historical episodes, buying TPG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +74.5% after 12 months (median +62.0%), compared to +28.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +102.2% vs +48.7% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TPG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TPG would reach each dislocation threshold.

Current Bean Score -0.85σ
Current FCF Yield 15.34%
Baseline Yield 16.63%
Historical σ 3.32pp

Dislocation Price Levels

Prices where TPG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-05-01.

LevelσPriceSignal
Deep Value+2σ$25.50Unusually cheap — potential buy zone
Value+1σ$29.43Cheap vs. own history
Fair Value+0σ$34.81Historical mean behavior
Expensive-1σ$42.59Expensive vs. own history
Deep Expensive-2σ$54.84Unusually expensive — potential trim zone

Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end

Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 22 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

11 / 13 weeks minimum

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from TPG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

⚠ Earnings quality deteriorating — net income is outrunning free cash flow vs this company's own norm. Cheapness signals here deserve extra scrutiny.
Yield Dislocation N/A Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score +1.14σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative N/A Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration +15.7pp YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity N/A TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History N/A Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Deteriorating Accrual gap trend (+21.1pp of revenue)

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

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Historical Touches

TPG has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +78.7% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Dec 2022Jan 202323.9%+62.7%+71.9%
Mar 2023Apr 202356.1%+63.6%+65.0%
Apr 2023Jun 2023611.2%+57.7%+64.4%
Jun 2023Jun 202314.9%+57.7%+73.4%
Aug 2023Sep 202347.9%+74.7%+71.8%
Oct 2023Oct 202325.4%+155.6%+73.1%
Mar 2026Apr 202657.0%N/A+5.2%
Jun 2026Jun 202610.6%N/A+2.1%
Average3+78.7%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is TPG below its 200-week moving average?

No. TPG Inc. (TPG) is currently 1.1% above its 200-week moving average of $41.58. It would need to fall to $41.58 to cross below the line.

What is TPG's 200-week moving average price?

TPG Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $41.58 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when TPG drops below its 200-week moving average?

TPG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +78.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 3 weeks on average.

Is TPG a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about TPG as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 55. Return on equity is 10.8%. Price-to-book is 5.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does TPG compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 3.6 years, $100 invested in TPG would have grown to $174, compared to $205 for the S&P 500. That's 16.7% annualized vs 22.2% for the index. TPG has underperformed the broader market over this period.

Does TPG pay a dividend?

Yes. TPG Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 502.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-06-19