TPC
Tutor Perini Corporation Industrials - Construction Investor Relations →
Tutor Perini Corporation (TPC) closed at $89.13 as of 2026-09-11, trading 164.0% above its 200-week moving average of $33.76. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 164.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 67, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 14 weeks, up-weeks have carried more volume than down-weeks (1.73 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). When trading picks up, it's more often on days the price is rising — buyers are showing more interest than sellers.
Over the past 2736 weeks of data, TPC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 47 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TPC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +12.2%.
With a market cap of $4.7 billion, TPC is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 12.2%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 13.7%.
Share count has increased 2.5% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TPC would have grown to $558, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. TPC has returned 5.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 4 open-market purchases totaling $5,426,713.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 56.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TPC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TPC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying TPC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +4.9% after 12 months (median -19.0%), compared to +12.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 43% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -5.9% vs +31.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TPC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TPC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TPC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $68.67 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $74.83 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $82.20 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $91.19 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $102.38 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $1.26 | $1.74 | +37.6% |
| 2026-05-06 | $0.96 | $1.03 | +7.8% |
| 2026-02-26 | $0.92 | $0.54 | -41.3% |
| 2025-11-05 | $0.89 | $1.15 | +28.6% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TPC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TPC has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +12.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1974 | Jun 1974 | 3 | 11.8% | +15.0% | +3852.0% |
| Jun 1974 | Jan 1975 | 32 | 40.9% | -4.5% | +3492.7% |
| Apr 1975 | Apr 1975 | 1 | 0.8% | +4.8% | +3663.8% |
| May 1975 | May 1975 | 1 | 1.0% | N/A | +3663.8% |
| Jun 1975 | Jul 1975 | 3 | 1.2% | +4.8% | +3663.8% |
| Jul 1975 | Jan 1976 | 24 | 23.8% | +14.3% | +3663.8% |
| Feb 1976 | Feb 1976 | 1 | 4.2% | +60.0% | +3852.0% |
| Apr 1976 | Apr 1976 | 1 | 0.2% | +47.6% | +3663.8% |
| May 1976 | May 1976 | 1 | 0.3% | +47.6% | +3663.8% |
| Jun 1976 | Jun 1976 | 1 | 0.3% | +47.6% | +3663.8% |
| Jun 1982 | Aug 1982 | 8 | 16.1% | +108.0% | +953.9% |
| Oct 1987 | Jun 1988 | 34 | 27.4% | +56.3% | +316.0% |
| Jan 1990 | Feb 1990 | 2 | 3.0% | -72.3% | +223.9% |
| Apr 1990 | Mar 1994 | 205 | 75.5% | -50.6% | +230.0% |
| Apr 1994 | Sep 1995 | 73 | 25.8% | -20.2% | +655.0% |
| Oct 1995 | Jun 1996 | 38 | 34.9% | -24.5% | +695.1% |
| Jul 1996 | Apr 1998 | 92 | 36.4% | -25.0% | +749.3% |
| May 1998 | Mar 2001 | 150 | 56.6% | -45.9% | +910.0% |
| May 2002 | Apr 2003 | 48 | 36.4% | +46.9% | +1846.4% |
| Jun 2008 | Feb 2013 | 240 | 66.0% | -39.5% | +243.1% |
| Feb 2013 | Mar 2013 | 2 | 2.9% | +47.1% | +433.7% |
| Apr 2013 | Apr 2013 | 2 | 7.0% | +90.8% | +459.7% |
| Jun 2013 | Jun 2013 | 1 | 0.5% | +77.1% | +421.8% |
| Jul 2015 | May 2016 | 42 | 47.2% | +23.4% | +349.2% |
| Sep 2016 | Nov 2016 | 8 | 13.4% | +31.1% | +340.8% |
| Nov 2017 | Nov 2017 | 2 | 2.6% | -24.1% | +280.6% |
| Jan 2018 | Mar 2021 | 162 | 71.3% | -32.9% | +273.4% |
| Apr 2021 | Feb 2024 | 149 | 57.8% | -42.4% | +440.7% |
| Average | 47 | — | +12.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TPC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Tutor Perini Corporation (TPC) is currently 164.0% above its 200-week moving average of $33.76. It would need to fall to $33.76 to cross below the line.
What is TPC's 200-week moving average price?
Tutor Perini Corporation's 200-week moving average is $33.76 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TPC drops below its 200-week moving average?
TPC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +12.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 47 weeks on average.
Is TPC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TPC as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 67. Free cash flow yield is 12.2%. Return on equity is 13.7%. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TPC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in TPC would have grown to $558, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That's 5.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. TPC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TPC pay a dividend?
Yes. Tutor Perini Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 42.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11