TPC
Tutor Perini Corporation Industrials - Construction Investor Relations →
Tutor Perini Corporation (TPC) closed at $77.99 as of 2026-06-19, trading 168.8% above its 200-week moving average of $29.02. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 161.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 59, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.85 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2724 weeks of data, TPC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 47 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TPC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +12.2%.
With a market cap of $4.1 billion, TPC is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 16.2%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 11.4%. The stock trades at 3.4x book value.
Share count has increased 2.5% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TPC would have grown to $488, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. TPC has returned 4.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 4 open-market purchases totaling $5,426,713.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 56.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TPC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TPC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying TPC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +4.9% after 12 months (median -19.0%), compared to +12.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 43% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -5.9% vs +31.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TPC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TPC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TPC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $70.85 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $76.08 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $82.15 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $89.27 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $97.74 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TPC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TPC has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +12.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1974 | Jun 1974 | 3 | 11.8% | +15.0% | +3354.6% |
| Jun 1974 | Jan 1975 | 32 | 40.9% | -4.5% | +3040.6% |
| Apr 1975 | Apr 1975 | 1 | 0.8% | +4.8% | +3190.1% |
| May 1975 | May 1975 | 1 | 1.0% | N/A | +3190.1% |
| Jun 1975 | Jul 1975 | 3 | 1.2% | +4.8% | +3190.1% |
| Jul 1975 | Jan 1976 | 24 | 23.8% | +14.3% | +3190.1% |
| Feb 1976 | Feb 1976 | 1 | 4.2% | +60.0% | +3354.6% |
| Apr 1976 | Apr 1976 | 1 | 0.2% | +47.6% | +3190.1% |
| May 1976 | May 1976 | 1 | 0.3% | +47.6% | +3190.1% |
| Jun 1976 | Jun 1976 | 1 | 0.3% | +47.6% | +3190.1% |
| Jun 1982 | Aug 1982 | 8 | 16.1% | +108.0% | +821.2% |
| Oct 1987 | Jun 1988 | 34 | 27.4% | +56.3% | +263.6% |
| Jan 1990 | Feb 1990 | 2 | 3.0% | -72.3% | +183.2% |
| Apr 1990 | Mar 1994 | 205 | 75.5% | -50.6% | +188.4% |
| Apr 1994 | Sep 1995 | 73 | 25.8% | -20.2% | +559.9% |
| Oct 1995 | Jun 1996 | 38 | 34.9% | -24.5% | +595.1% |
| Jul 1996 | Apr 1998 | 92 | 36.4% | -25.0% | +642.4% |
| May 1998 | Mar 2001 | 150 | 56.6% | -45.9% | +782.9% |
| May 2002 | Apr 2003 | 48 | 36.4% | +46.9% | +1601.4% |
| Jun 2008 | Feb 2013 | 240 | 66.0% | -39.5% | +199.9% |
| Feb 2013 | Mar 2013 | 2 | 2.9% | +47.1% | +366.5% |
| Apr 2013 | Apr 2013 | 2 | 7.0% | +90.8% | +389.3% |
| Jun 2013 | Jun 2013 | 1 | 0.5% | +77.1% | +356.2% |
| Jul 2015 | May 2016 | 42 | 47.2% | +23.4% | +292.7% |
| Sep 2016 | Nov 2016 | 8 | 13.4% | +31.1% | +285.3% |
| Nov 2017 | Nov 2017 | 2 | 2.6% | -24.1% | +232.7% |
| Jan 2018 | Mar 2021 | 162 | 71.3% | -32.9% | +226.4% |
| Apr 2021 | Feb 2024 | 149 | 57.8% | -42.4% | +372.7% |
| Average | 47 | — | +12.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TPC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Tutor Perini Corporation (TPC) is currently 168.8% above its 200-week moving average of $29.02. It would need to fall to $29.02 to cross below the line.
What is TPC's 200-week moving average price?
Tutor Perini Corporation's 200-week moving average is $29.02 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TPC drops below its 200-week moving average?
TPC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +12.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 47 weeks on average.
Is TPC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TPC as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 59. Free cash flow yield is 16.2%. Return on equity is 11.4%. Price-to-book is 3.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TPC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in TPC would have grown to $488, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 4.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. TPC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19