TOST
Toast, Inc. Technology - Restaurant Software Investor Relations →
Toast, Inc. (TOST) closed at $27.46 as of 2026-03-20, trading 2.8% above its 200-week moving average of $26.70. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 3.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 30, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.80 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 186 weeks of data, TOST has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times. On average, these episodes lasted 27 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TOST at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +59.3%.
With a market cap of $16.2 billion, TOST is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.6%. Return on equity stands at 18.6%, a solid level. The stock trades at 7.6x book value.
Share count has increased 12.6% over three years, indicating dilution. TOST passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 3.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TOST would have grown to $149, compared to $173 for the S&P 500. TOST has returned 11.6% annualized vs 16.1% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TOST vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TOST Crosses Below the Line?
Across 3 historical episodes, buying TOST when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +49.0% after 12 months (median +58.0%), compared to +14.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +35.0% vs +47.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TOST crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
TOST has crossed below its 200-week MA 3 times with an average 1-year return of +59.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2022 | Feb 2024 | 78 | 38.2% | +19.5% | +49.3% |
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2024 | 1 | 3.0% | +58.6% | +27.0% |
| Jun 2024 | Jun 2024 | 1 | 1.7% | +99.9% | +24.7% |
| Average | 27 | — | +59.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TOST below its 200-week moving average?
No. Toast, Inc. (TOST) is currently 2.8% above its 200-week moving average of $26.70. It would need to fall to $26.70 to cross below the line.
What is TOST's 200-week moving average price?
Toast, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $26.70 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TOST drops below its 200-week moving average?
TOST has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +59.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 27 weeks on average.
Is TOST a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TOST as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 30. Free cash flow yield is 3.6%. Return on equity is 18.6%. Price-to-book is 7.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TOST compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 3.7 years, $100 invested in TOST would have grown to $149, compared to $173 for the S&P 500. That's 11.6% annualized vs 16.1% for the index. TOST has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20