TOL
Toll Brothers Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Homebuilders Investor Relations →
Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) closed at $153.28 as of 2026-02-02, trading 59.5% above its 200-week moving average of $96.10. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 51.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 72, TOL is in overbought territory.
Over the past 2017 weeks of data, TOL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TOL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +22.7%.
With a market cap of $14.6 billion, TOL is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.8%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 16.9%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.8x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 13.5% over the past three years. TOL passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TOL would have grown to $4442, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.1% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming TOL as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 3.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Growth of $100: TOL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TOL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying TOL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +32.3% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +13.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 61% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +75.3% vs +22.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TOL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
TOL has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +22.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1987 | Feb 1991 | 176 | 60.8% | -35.0% | +8932.6% |
| Oct 1994 | Jan 1995 | 17 | 17.9% | +76.2% | +6351.9% |
| Mar 1995 | Apr 1995 | 5 | 4.3% | +53.3% | +5790.8% |
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 1 | 0.4% | -5.7% | +3341.0% |
| Feb 1999 | Apr 1999 | 8 | 12.5% | -14.7% | +3287.2% |
| May 1999 | May 1999 | 1 | 3.8% | -4.0% | +3224.9% |
| Jun 1999 | Jul 1999 | 2 | 1.5% | -5.7% | +3125.9% |
| Jul 1999 | Apr 2000 | 36 | 23.5% | +10.9% | +3088.0% |
| May 2000 | Jul 2000 | 9 | 12.6% | +64.8% | +3050.9% |
| Jun 2006 | Sep 2006 | 11 | 11.7% | -2.3% | +562.3% |
| Mar 2007 | Apr 2007 | 6 | 6.2% | -32.4% | +487.0% |
| Apr 2007 | Jan 2011 | 192 | 49.9% | -19.0% | +473.9% |
| Jan 2011 | Feb 2011 | 3 | 2.5% | +12.6% | +733.5% |
| Mar 2011 | Apr 2011 | 3 | 2.2% | +21.4% | +757.1% |
| Jun 2011 | Jun 2011 | 1 | 1.2% | +30.9% | +758.8% |
| Aug 2011 | Nov 2011 | 17 | 27.0% | +64.3% | +851.5% |
| Dec 2015 | Feb 2017 | 62 | 26.4% | -3.8% | +415.6% |
| Jul 2018 | Aug 2018 | 4 | 3.4% | +2.4% | +375.6% |
| Sep 2018 | Jan 2019 | 18 | 15.6% | +22.9% | +406.0% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 1.1% | -5.8% | +376.2% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 0.3% | +29.6% | +372.4% |
| Mar 2020 | Jul 2020 | 19 | 56.5% | +109.5% | +511.4% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 5.2% | +79.8% | +284.0% |
| Aug 2022 | Nov 2022 | 10 | 7.5% | +94.2% | +262.4% |
| Average | 25 | — | +22.7% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02