TME
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Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) closed at $10.09 as of 2026-03-20, trading 10.6% below its 200-week moving average of $11.29. This places TME in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 26.0% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 10, TME is in oversold territory.
A big spike in selling this week — 4.3x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 331 weeks of data, TME has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times. On average, these episodes lasted 45 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TME at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +42.9%.
With a market cap of $17.0 billion, TME is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 45.1%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 14.9%. The stock trades at 1.3x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 9.1% over the past three years.
Over the past 6.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TME would have grown to $83, compared to $227 for the S&P 500. TME has returned -2.9% annualized vs 13.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 55% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TME vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TME Crosses Below the Line?
Across 3 historical episodes, buying TME when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +11.0% after 12 months (median +35.0%), compared to +11.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -51.0% vs +26.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TME crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
TME has crossed below its 200-week MA 4 times with an average 1-year return of +42.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2019 | Jun 2020 | 32 | 33.0% | +35.5% | -16.5% |
| May 2021 | Feb 2024 | 145 | 75.2% | -73.0% | -32.2% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 1 | 2.9% | +166.2% | +7.4% |
| Mar 2026 | Ongoing | 1+ | 10.6% | Ongoing | N/A |
| Average | 45 | — | +42.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TME below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) is trading 10.6% below its 200-week moving average of $11.29. The current price is $10.09.
What is TME's 200-week moving average price?
Tencent Music Entertainment Group's 200-week moving average is $11.29 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TME drops below its 200-week moving average?
TME has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +42.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 45 weeks on average.
Is TME a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TME as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 10 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 45.1%. Return on equity is 14.9%. Price-to-book is 1.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TME compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 6.4 years, $100 invested in TME would have grown to $83, compared to $227 for the S&P 500. That's -2.9% annualized vs 13.6% for the index. TME has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TME pay a dividend?
Yes. Tencent Music Entertainment Group currently pays a dividend yield of 238.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20