TM
Toyota Motor Corporation Consumer Discretionary - Automobiles Investor Relations →
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) closed at $188.99 as of 2026-07-31, trading 5.7% above its 200-week moving average of $178.77. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -0.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 46, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.97 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2371 weeks of data, TM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times. On average, these episodes lasted 22 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.2%.
With a market cap of $223.8 billion, TM is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 10.2%. The stock trades at 16.2x book value.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TM would have grown to $1508, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. TM has returned 8.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying TM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +22.2% after 12 months (median +19.0%), compared to +15.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 76% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +29.6% vs +31.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-06.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $171.21 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $183.12 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $196.81 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $212.71 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $231.40 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TM has crossed below its 200-week MA 26 times with an average 1-year return of +17.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Mar 1981 | 1 | 1.0% | +30.3% | +8715.3% |
| Mar 1982 | Apr 1982 | 8 | 16.9% | +18.9% | +7060.8% |
| Jun 1982 | Nov 1982 | 22 | 13.8% | +45.5% | +7060.8% |
| Mar 1990 | Apr 1990 | 3 | 5.2% | +8.1% | +1350.0% |
| Apr 1990 | Apr 1990 | 2 | 2.6% | -1.2% | +1307.0% |
| Jun 1990 | Jun 1990 | 1 | 2.2% | -12.2% | +1295.2% |
| Jul 1990 | Oct 1990 | 9 | 8.9% | -1.8% | +1310.6% |
| Oct 1990 | Mar 1993 | 124 | 29.0% | -3.3% | +1247.6% |
| Aug 1998 | Oct 1998 | 9 | 13.9% | +45.4% | +615.8% |
| Dec 2000 | Jan 2001 | 3 | 7.2% | -19.9% | +410.5% |
| Aug 2001 | Dec 2003 | 121 | 35.0% | -20.9% | +389.3% |
| Apr 2008 | Apr 2008 | 1 | 0.8% | -15.4% | +203.0% |
| Jun 2008 | Jan 2011 | 137 | 40.5% | -19.6% | +197.7% |
| Mar 2011 | Jun 2011 | 14 | 5.3% | +6.5% | +239.5% |
| Aug 2011 | Jan 2012 | 26 | 18.9% | +6.4% | +254.3% |
| Feb 2016 | Jul 2016 | 24 | 9.4% | +10.9% | +135.2% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 2 | 1.2% | +17.4% | +116.5% |
| Feb 2017 | Jul 2017 | 24 | 6.9% | +25.0% | +112.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 4 | 1.5% | +33.8% | +90.6% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 1 | 0.3% | +37.5% | +86.3% |
| Sep 2022 | Nov 2022 | 8 | 6.7% | +38.7% | +46.5% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 5 | 3.6% | +32.4% | +45.0% |
| Feb 2023 | May 2023 | 11 | 6.9% | +77.8% | +49.6% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 1.5% | +58.3% | +42.7% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 3.8% | +30.5% | +19.1% |
| Jun 2026 | Ongoing | 8+ | 3.4% | Ongoing | +8.0% |
| Average | 22 | — | +17.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TM below its 200-week moving average?
No. Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) is currently 5.7% above its 200-week moving average of $178.77. It would need to fall to $178.77 to cross below the line.
What is TM's 200-week moving average price?
Toyota Motor Corporation's 200-week moving average is $178.77 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TM drops below its 200-week moving average?
TM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +17.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 22 weeks on average.
Is TM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TM as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 46. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 10.2%. Price-to-book is 16.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in TM would have grown to $1508, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 8.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. TM has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TM pay a dividend?
Yes. Toyota Motor Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 327.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31