TM
Toyota Motor Corporation Consumer Discretionary - Automobiles Investor Relations →
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) closed at $173.94 as of 2026-06-19, trading 1.9% below its 200-week moving average of $177.28. This places TM in the below line zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -1.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 23, TM is in oversold territory.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.65 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 2365 weeks of data, TM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times. On average, these episodes lasted 22 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.3%.
With a market cap of $206.0 billion, TM is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 10.2%. The stock trades at 14.6x book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TM would have grown to $1388, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. TM has returned 8.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying TM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +22.4% after 12 months (median +19.0%), compared to +15.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 76% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +29.7% vs +31.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-06.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $181.96 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $191.31 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $201.68 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $213.24 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $226.20 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TM has crossed below its 200-week MA 26 times with an average 1-year return of +17.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Mar 1981 | 1 | 1.0% | +30.3% | +8013.3% |
| Mar 1982 | Apr 1982 | 8 | 16.9% | +18.9% | +6490.6% |
| Jun 1982 | Nov 1982 | 22 | 13.8% | +45.5% | +6490.6% |
| Mar 1990 | Apr 1990 | 3 | 5.2% | +8.1% | +1234.5% |
| Apr 1990 | Apr 1990 | 2 | 2.6% | -1.2% | +1195.0% |
| Jun 1990 | Jun 1990 | 1 | 2.2% | -12.2% | +1184.1% |
| Jul 1990 | Oct 1990 | 9 | 8.9% | -1.8% | +1198.3% |
| Oct 1990 | Mar 1993 | 124 | 29.0% | -3.3% | +1140.3% |
| Aug 1998 | Oct 1998 | 9 | 13.9% | +45.4% | +558.8% |
| Dec 2000 | Jan 2001 | 3 | 7.2% | -19.9% | +369.9% |
| Aug 2001 | Dec 2003 | 121 | 34.9% | -20.9% | +350.4% |
| Apr 2008 | Apr 2008 | 1 | 0.8% | -15.4% | +178.9% |
| Jun 2008 | Jan 2011 | 137 | 40.5% | -19.6% | +174.0% |
| Mar 2011 | Jun 2011 | 14 | 5.3% | +6.5% | +212.5% |
| Aug 2011 | Jan 2012 | 26 | 18.9% | +6.4% | +226.1% |
| Feb 2016 | Jul 2016 | 24 | 9.4% | +10.9% | +116.5% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 2 | 1.2% | +17.4% | +99.3% |
| Feb 2017 | Jul 2017 | 24 | 6.9% | +25.0% | +95.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 4 | 2.9% | +33.8% | +75.5% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 1 | 0.3% | +37.5% | +71.4% |
| Sep 2022 | Nov 2022 | 8 | 7.9% | +38.7% | +34.8% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 5 | 3.5% | +32.4% | +33.4% |
| Feb 2023 | May 2023 | 11 | 6.8% | +77.8% | +37.7% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 1.4% | +58.3% | +31.4% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 5.6% | +33.1% | +11.8% |
| Jun 2026 | Ongoing | 2+ | 1.9% | Ongoing | -0.6% |
| Average | 22 | — | +17.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TM below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) is trading 1.9% below its 200-week moving average of $177.28. The current price is $173.94.
What is TM's 200-week moving average price?
Toyota Motor Corporation's 200-week moving average is $177.28 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TM drops below its 200-week moving average?
TM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +17.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 22 weeks on average.
Is TM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TM as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 23 (oversold). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 10.2%. Price-to-book is 14.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in TM would have grown to $1388, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 8.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. TM has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19