TM
Toyota Motor Corporation Consumer Discretionary - Automobiles Investor Relations →
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) closed at $244.22 as of 2026-02-02, trading 42.0% above its 200-week moving average of $172.01. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 32.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 74, TM is in overbought territory.
Over the past 2346 weeks of data, TM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times. On average, these episodes lasted 22 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +16.6%.
With a market cap of $319.8 billion, TM is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 24.6%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 12.9%. The stock trades at 13.3x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.3% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TM would have grown to $1949, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. TM has returned 9.4% annualized vs 10.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: TM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying TM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +21.7% after 12 months (median +19.0%), compared to +15.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +29.7% vs +31.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
TM has crossed below its 200-week MA 25 times with an average 1-year return of +16.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Mar 1981 | 1 | 1.0% | +30.3% | +11291.5% |
| Mar 1982 | Apr 1982 | 8 | 16.9% | +18.9% | +9153.5% |
| Jun 1982 | Nov 1982 | 22 | 13.8% | +45.5% | +9153.5% |
| Mar 1990 | Apr 1990 | 3 | 5.2% | +8.1% | +1773.8% |
| Apr 1990 | Apr 1990 | 2 | 2.6% | -1.2% | +1718.2% |
| Jun 1990 | Jun 1990 | 1 | 2.2% | -12.2% | +1702.9% |
| Jul 1990 | Oct 1990 | 9 | 8.9% | -1.8% | +1722.8% |
| Oct 1990 | Mar 1993 | 124 | 29.0% | -3.3% | +1641.4% |
| Aug 1998 | Oct 1998 | 9 | 13.9% | +45.4% | +825.0% |
| Dec 2000 | Jan 2001 | 3 | 7.2% | -19.9% | +559.7% |
| Aug 2001 | Dec 2003 | 121 | 34.9% | -20.9% | +532.3% |
| Apr 2008 | Apr 2008 | 1 | 0.8% | -15.4% | +291.5% |
| Jun 2008 | Jan 2011 | 137 | 40.5% | -19.6% | +284.8% |
| Mar 2011 | Jun 2011 | 14 | 5.3% | +6.5% | +338.7% |
| Aug 2011 | Jan 2012 | 26 | 18.9% | +6.4% | +357.9% |
| Feb 2016 | Jul 2016 | 24 | 9.4% | +10.9% | +204.0% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 2 | 1.2% | +17.4% | +179.8% |
| Feb 2017 | Jul 2017 | 24 | 6.9% | +25.0% | +174.0% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 4 | 2.9% | +33.8% | +146.4% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 1 | 0.3% | +37.5% | +140.7% |
| Sep 2022 | Nov 2022 | 8 | 7.9% | +38.7% | +89.3% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 5 | 3.5% | +32.4% | +87.3% |
| Feb 2023 | May 2023 | 11 | 6.8% | +77.8% | +93.3% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 1.4% | +58.3% | +84.4% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 5.6% | N/A | +57.0% |
| Average | 22 | — | +16.6% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02