TKO
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. Communication Services Investor Relations →
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) closed at $181.81 as of 2026-07-31, trading 40.2% above its 200-week moving average of $129.70. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 39.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 48, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.99 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1349 weeks of data, TKO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TKO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +15.6%.
With a market cap of $34.7 billion, TKO is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.4%. Return on equity stands at 6.7%. The stock trades at 4.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.5% over the past three years.
Over the past 25.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TKO would have grown to $2878, compared to $824 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.8% vs 8.5% for the index — confirming TKO as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 5 open-market purchases totaling $5,637,713. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 33.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TKO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TKO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying TKO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +21.4% after 12 months (median +20.0%), compared to +6.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +40.0% vs +18.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TKO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TKO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TKO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $182.69 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $189.84 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $197.57 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $205.96 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $215.09 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TKO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TKO has crossed below its 200-week MA 21 times with an average 1-year return of +15.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2000 | Jan 2001 | 14 | 24.5% | -13.1% | +2778.3% |
| Feb 2001 | Mar 2002 | 56 | 31.0% | -21.3% | +2477.5% |
| Mar 2002 | Apr 2002 | 2 | 4.9% | -46.2% | +2894.1% |
| Apr 2002 | Dec 2003 | 86 | 51.3% | -40.0% | +2853.6% |
| May 2004 | May 2004 | 3 | 6.0% | -10.3% | +3450.8% |
| Apr 2005 | Jun 2005 | 9 | 9.7% | +70.9% | +3814.0% |
| Nov 2008 | Jun 2009 | 30 | 29.5% | +24.8% | +2461.1% |
| Jun 2009 | Jul 2009 | 4 | 4.0% | +45.2% | +2361.3% |
| Jan 2011 | Feb 2011 | 4 | 3.2% | -13.4% | +2122.0% |
| Mar 2011 | Mar 2011 | 1 | 0.3% | -22.8% | +2055.9% |
| Apr 2011 | Jun 2013 | 115 | 30.2% | -24.2% | +2199.5% |
| Aug 2013 | Sep 2013 | 3 | 2.2% | +44.8% | +2212.2% |
| Sep 2013 | Sep 2013 | 1 | 1.5% | +56.2% | +2235.0% |
| Jan 2015 | Jan 2015 | 2 | 3.1% | +68.0% | +2011.3% |
| Feb 2020 | Feb 2020 | 2 | 7.7% | +17.1% | +366.9% |
| Mar 2020 | Jan 2021 | 46 | 27.8% | +29.1% | +365.1% |
| Feb 2021 | Mar 2021 | 4 | 11.1% | +6.0% | +298.8% |
| May 2021 | May 2021 | 1 | 1.2% | +9.4% | +264.9% |
| Jul 2021 | Sep 2021 | 11 | 14.3% | +27.0% | +286.7% |
| Nov 2021 | Mar 2022 | 18 | 17.6% | +35.8% | +249.0% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2022 | 3 | 1.5% | +84.8% | +232.6% |
| Average | 20 | — | +15.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TKO below its 200-week moving average?
No. TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) is currently 40.2% above its 200-week moving average of $129.70. It would need to fall to $129.70 to cross below the line.
What is TKO's 200-week moving average price?
TKO Group Holdings, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $129.70 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TKO drops below its 200-week moving average?
TKO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +15.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is TKO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TKO as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 48. Free cash flow yield is 2.4%. Return on equity is 6.7%. Price-to-book is 4.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TKO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 25.9 years, $100 invested in TKO would have grown to $2878, compared to $824 for the S&P 500. That's 13.8% annualized vs 8.5% for the index. TKO has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TKO pay a dividend?
Yes. TKO Group Holdings, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 169.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31