TJX
The TJX Companies Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Retail Investor Relations →
The TJX Companies Inc. (TJX) closed at $127.24 as of 2026-09-18, trading 12.2% above its 200-week moving average of $113.41. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 11.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 18, TJX is in oversold territory.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.3x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 1999 weeks of data, TJX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TJX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +31.6%.
With a market cap of $140.0 billion, TJX is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.1%. Return on equity stands at 62.2%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 13.5x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TJX would have grown to $23167, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 17.5% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming TJX as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 23.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TJX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TJX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying TJX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +33.6% after 12 months (median +42.0%), compared to +12.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 83% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +84.4% vs +24.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TJX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TJX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TJX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-18.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $128.05 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $138.03 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $149.70 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $163.52 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $180.15 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | $1.19 | $1.36 | +14.5% |
| 2026-05-20 | $1.02 | $1.19 | +17.2% |
| 2026-02-25 | $1.38 | $1.58 | +14.1% |
| 2025-11-19 | $1.22 | $1.28 | +5.0% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TJX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TJX has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +31.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1988 | Jun 1988 | 3 | 15.8% | +65.9% | +51386.0% |
| Jul 1988 | Aug 1988 | 4 | 3.8% | +17.1% | +44545.2% |
| Jun 1989 | Jun 1989 | 1 | 2.0% | -17.1% | +39394.2% |
| Jul 1989 | Jul 1989 | 1 | 3.4% | -6.9% | +39966.5% |
| Oct 1989 | Feb 1991 | 70 | 44.4% | -44.3% | +40054.7% |
| Oct 1991 | Dec 1991 | 11 | 7.2% | +58.0% | +43278.8% |
| Apr 1992 | Apr 1992 | 1 | 0.1% | +89.8% | +39968.3% |
| Jul 1994 | Sep 1994 | 9 | 9.9% | -24.1% | +31920.8% |
| Sep 1994 | Feb 1996 | 74 | 45.8% | -42.1% | +28159.9% |
| Jan 2000 | Mar 2000 | 9 | 26.1% | +60.7% | +7991.3% |
| Apr 2000 | May 2000 | 3 | 8.3% | +66.2% | +7159.5% |
| Jun 2000 | Sep 2000 | 12 | 21.1% | +60.3% | +6849.2% |
| Aug 2005 | Sep 2005 | 1 | 3.3% | +33.1% | +3192.3% |
| Sep 2005 | Oct 2005 | 6 | 3.0% | +37.2% | +3160.2% |
| Oct 2008 | Mar 2009 | 24 | 26.1% | +49.9% | +2423.7% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 15.4% | +78.9% | +270.1% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 0.7% | +40.5% | +136.2% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 3 | 3.3% | +45.9% | +138.5% |
| Average | 13 | — | +31.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TJX below its 200-week moving average?
No. The TJX Companies Inc. (TJX) is currently 12.2% above its 200-week moving average of $113.41. It would need to fall to $113.41 to cross below the line.
What is TJX's 200-week moving average price?
The TJX Companies Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $113.41 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TJX drops below its 200-week moving average?
TJX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +31.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 13 weeks on average.
Is TJX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TJX as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 18 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 3.1%. Return on equity is 62.2%. Price-to-book is 13.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TJX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in TJX would have grown to $23167, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 17.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. TJX has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TJX pay a dividend?
Yes. The TJX Companies Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 151.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18