TGT
Target Corporation Consumer Discretionary - Retail Investor Relations →
Target Corporation (TGT) closed at $115.55 as of 2026-02-02, trading 9.6% below its 200-week moving average of $127.87. This places TGT in the deep value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -17.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 78, TGT is in overbought territory.
Over the past 2715 weeks of data, TGT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 30 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TGT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +24.3%.
With a market cap of $52.5 billion, TGT is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.0%. Return on equity stands at 25.1%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 3.4x book value.
TGT is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The current yield is 395.00%. Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 3.3% reduction over three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TGT would have grown to $3392, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.2% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming TGT as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: TGT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TGT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 25 historical episodes, buying TGT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +14.6% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +12.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 72% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +40.5% vs +32.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TGT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
TGT has crossed below its 200-week MA 30 times with an average 1-year return of +24.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1974 | Mar 1975 | 58 | 44.2% | -9.8% | +126649.0% |
| Apr 1980 | Apr 1980 | 1 | 3.2% | +68.1% | +35131.9% |
| Oct 1987 | Sep 1988 | 48 | 35.7% | +63.1% | +10345.7% |
| Nov 1988 | Nov 1988 | 3 | 4.3% | +67.3% | +7172.4% |
| Dec 1988 | Jan 1989 | 4 | 3.5% | +54.1% | +7125.8% |
| Jun 1993 | Jun 1993 | 1 | 1.2% | +30.6% | +4010.4% |
| Jan 1994 | Feb 1994 | 1 | 0.0% | +16.3% | +3862.2% |
| Mar 1995 | Mar 1995 | 1 | 0.2% | +15.9% | +3578.2% |
| Apr 1995 | May 1995 | 5 | 5.5% | +30.3% | +3591.8% |
| Jan 1996 | Jan 1996 | 1 | 0.1% | +68.1% | +3453.1% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 7.8% | +26.9% | +626.3% |
| Jul 2002 | Aug 2002 | 4 | 6.2% | +21.3% | +504.5% |
| Sep 2002 | Nov 2002 | 9 | 15.5% | +20.8% | +503.7% |
| Dec 2002 | May 2003 | 21 | 20.1% | +26.1% | +520.9% |
| May 2003 | May 2003 | 1 | 0.8% | +31.4% | +479.3% |
| Dec 2007 | Apr 2008 | 18 | 8.9% | -29.6% | +258.9% |
| May 2008 | Sep 2008 | 17 | 17.1% | -14.8% | +253.3% |
| Sep 2008 | Oct 2009 | 55 | 50.2% | -6.8% | +244.1% |
| Oct 2009 | Jan 2010 | 11 | 7.1% | +11.5% | +267.4% |
| Feb 2010 | Feb 2010 | 1 | 0.8% | +13.6% | +269.0% |
| May 2011 | Jun 2011 | 4 | 2.1% | +23.5% | +269.1% |
| May 2014 | May 2014 | 1 | 0.7% | +46.8% | +194.2% |
| Jan 2017 | Dec 2017 | 48 | 21.4% | +27.0% | +134.9% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 3 | 8.3% | +118.0% | +128.6% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 5 | 4.8% | -1.5% | -6.8% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 3 | 4.4% | -23.4% | -13.0% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 4 | 8.4% | -8.4% | -15.8% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 3 | 3.1% | +10.9% | -19.4% |
| Apr 2023 | Mar 2024 | 49 | 36.3% | +6.6% | -20.8% |
| Apr 2024 | Ongoing | 96+ | 41.1% | Ongoing | -25.8% |
| Average | 16 | — | +24.3% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02