TFC
Truist Financial Corporation Financial Services - Banking Investor Relations →
Truist Financial Corporation (TFC) closed at $51.84 as of 2026-07-31, trading 36.0% above its 200-week moving average of $38.11. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 36.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 55, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.94 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2371 weeks of data, TFC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TFC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +10.9%.
With a market cap of $63.3 billion, TFC is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 9.1%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TFC would have grown to $1623, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. TFC has returned 8.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -19.7% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TFC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TFC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying TFC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +15.0% after 12 months (median +14.0%), compared to +10.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 65% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +28.4% vs +24.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TFC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TFC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TFC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $42.40 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $44.89 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $47.69 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $50.86 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $54.48 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TFC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TFC has crossed below its 200-week MA 27 times with an average 1-year return of +10.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1981 | Sep 1981 | 1 | 1.6% | +8.1% | +10466.9% |
| Nov 1981 | Mar 1982 | 16 | 3.9% | +10.5% | +10466.9% |
| Jun 1990 | Jul 1990 | 1 | 6.1% | -1.3% | +3091.5% |
| Jul 1990 | Jul 1991 | 51 | 26.9% | +6.4% | +2928.3% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 6 | 16.6% | +49.7% | +441.9% |
| Apr 2000 | May 2000 | 6 | 5.4% | +36.6% | +423.8% |
| Jun 2000 | Sep 2000 | 12 | 14.6% | +41.4% | +434.7% |
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 1 | 1.1% | -16.5% | +186.5% |
| Oct 2007 | Sep 2008 | 48 | 37.8% | -0.7% | +191.2% |
| Oct 2008 | Mar 2010 | 74 | 58.9% | -4.2% | +227.2% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 1 | 0.3% | -8.5% | +213.9% |
| Jun 2010 | Jan 2011 | 29 | 20.5% | -9.4% | +219.0% |
| Feb 2011 | Mar 2011 | 1 | 1.9% | +14.0% | +241.9% |
| Apr 2011 | Apr 2011 | 1 | 1.7% | +24.7% | +244.9% |
| May 2011 | Jun 2011 | 4 | 2.5% | +11.4% | +243.0% |
| Jul 2011 | Dec 2011 | 23 | 24.7% | +27.7% | +251.8% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 7 | 5.6% | +45.0% | +138.5% |
| Mar 2016 | Apr 2016 | 2 | 3.6% | +37.5% | +133.8% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 1 | 1.4% | +33.7% | +134.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 36 | 39.5% | +50.7% | +70.3% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 2 | 3.3% | -37.9% | +37.5% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 2 | 2.9% | -25.2% | +38.6% |
| Aug 2022 | Sep 2022 | 1 | 1.4% | -29.6% | +35.6% |
| Sep 2022 | Jan 2023 | 16 | 12.1% | -32.9% | +42.2% |
| Feb 2023 | Jul 2024 | 72 | 39.6% | -18.4% | +33.3% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 6 | 13.0% | +42.1% | +57.8% |
| Jun 2025 | Jun 2025 | 1 | 0.3% | +38.6% | +39.0% |
| Average | 16 | — | +10.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TFC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Truist Financial Corporation (TFC) is currently 36.0% above its 200-week moving average of $38.11. It would need to fall to $38.11 to cross below the line.
What is TFC's 200-week moving average price?
Truist Financial Corporation's 200-week moving average is $38.11 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TFC drops below its 200-week moving average?
TFC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +10.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is TFC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TFC as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 55. Return on equity is 9.1%. Price-to-book is 1.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TFC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in TFC would have grown to $1623, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 8.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. TFC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TFC pay a dividend?
Yes. Truist Financial Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 401.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31