TFC
Truist Financial Corporation Financial Services - Banking Investor Relations →
Truist Financial Corporation (TFC) closed at $48.33 as of 2026-06-19, trading 28.3% above its 200-week moving average of $37.67. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 37.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 63, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.1x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 2365 weeks of data, TFC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TFC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.1%.
With a market cap of $60.2 billion, TFC is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 8.6%. The stock trades at 1.0x book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TFC would have grown to $1513, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. TFC has returned 8.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -19.7% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TFC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TFC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 24 historical episodes, buying TFC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +14.2% after 12 months (median +11.0%), compared to +9.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +28.0% vs +21.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TFC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TFC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TFC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-17.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $42.04 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $44.47 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $47.19 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $50.28 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $53.79 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TFC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TFC has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +11.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1981 | Sep 1981 | 1 | 1.6% | +8.1% | +9751.4% |
| Nov 1981 | Mar 1982 | 16 | 3.9% | +10.5% | +9751.4% |
| Jun 1990 | Jul 1990 | 1 | 6.0% | -1.3% | +2875.4% |
| Jul 1990 | Jul 1991 | 51 | 26.8% | +6.4% | +2723.2% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 6 | 16.6% | +49.7% | +405.2% |
| Apr 2000 | May 2000 | 6 | 5.4% | +36.7% | +391.8% |
| Jun 2000 | Sep 2000 | 12 | 14.6% | +41.4% | +398.5% |
| Oct 2000 | Oct 2000 | 1 | 0.8% | +19.8% | +344.8% |
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 1 | 1.0% | -16.5% | +167.1% |
| Oct 2007 | Sep 2008 | 48 | 39.0% | -2.0% | +171.5% |
| Oct 2008 | Mar 2010 | 74 | 58.8% | -4.2% | +205.0% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 1 | 0.2% | -8.5% | +192.7% |
| Jun 2010 | Jan 2011 | 29 | 20.4% | -9.4% | +197.4% |
| Feb 2011 | Mar 2011 | 1 | 1.8% | +14.0% | +218.7% |
| Apr 2011 | Apr 2011 | 1 | 1.6% | +24.7% | +221.5% |
| May 2011 | Jun 2011 | 4 | 2.5% | +11.4% | +219.8% |
| Jul 2011 | Dec 2011 | 23 | 24.6% | +27.7% | +228.0% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 7 | 6.4% | +45.0% | +122.3% |
| Mar 2016 | Apr 2016 | 2 | 3.5% | +37.5% | +118.0% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 1 | 2.2% | +33.8% | +120.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 36 | 39.5% | +50.7% | +58.8% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 2 | 3.3% | -38.5% | +29.5% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 2 | 2.8% | -25.2% | +29.2% |
| Aug 2022 | Sep 2022 | 1 | 1.3% | -29.6% | +26.4% |
| Sep 2022 | Jan 2023 | 16 | 12.0% | -32.9% | +32.5% |
| Feb 2023 | Jul 2024 | 72 | 40.6% | -18.4% | +24.3% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 6 | 12.9% | +42.1% | +47.1% |
| Jun 2025 | Jun 2025 | 1 | 0.2% | +38.6% | +29.6% |
| Average | 15 | — | +11.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TFC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Truist Financial Corporation (TFC) is currently 28.3% above its 200-week moving average of $37.67. It would need to fall to $37.67 to cross below the line.
What is TFC's 200-week moving average price?
Truist Financial Corporation's 200-week moving average is $37.67 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TFC drops below its 200-week moving average?
TFC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 15 weeks on average.
Is TFC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TFC as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 63. Return on equity is 8.6%. Price-to-book is 1.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TFC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in TFC would have grown to $1513, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 8.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. TFC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TFC pay a dividend?
Yes. Truist Financial Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 423.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19