TEL
TE Connectivity plc Technology - Electronic Components Investor Relations →
TE Connectivity plc (TEL) closed at $205.69 as of 2026-07-31, trading 31.4% above its 200-week moving average of $156.56. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 30.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 43, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.87 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 950 weeks of data, TEL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 11 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TEL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +29.8%.
With a market cap of $59.6 billion, TEL is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.9%. Return on equity stands at 23.3%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 4.5x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.4% over the past three years. TEL passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 18.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TEL would have grown to $736, compared to $744 for the S&P 500. TEL has returned 11.6% annualized vs 11.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 23.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TEL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TEL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying TEL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +32.7% after 12 months (median +31.0%), compared to +19.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +46.2% vs +36.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TEL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TEL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TEL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $180.25 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $191.40 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $204.02 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $218.43 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $235.02 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TEL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TEL has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +29.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 2 | 1.7% | -47.5% | +740.6% |
| Jul 2008 | Mar 2010 | 84 | 73.5% | -32.4% | +798.7% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 3 | 5.3% | +57.4% | +1032.7% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 1 | 3.9% | +21.4% | +1016.4% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 0.6% | +36.0% | +224.0% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 12 | 30.8% | +68.5% | +188.9% |
| Jun 2020 | Jul 2020 | 5 | 3.0% | +77.3% | +187.5% |
| Oct 2022 | Oct 2022 | 1 | 0.6% | +15.0% | +102.9% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 2 | 2.1% | +28.9% | +82.2% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 8.1% | +73.3% | +71.1% |
| Average | 11 | — | +29.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TEL below its 200-week moving average?
No. TE Connectivity plc (TEL) is currently 31.4% above its 200-week moving average of $156.56. It would need to fall to $156.56 to cross below the line.
What is TEL's 200-week moving average price?
TE Connectivity plc's 200-week moving average is $156.56 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TEL drops below its 200-week moving average?
TEL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +29.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 11 weeks on average.
Is TEL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TEL as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 43. Free cash flow yield is 3.9%. Return on equity is 23.3%. Price-to-book is 4.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TEL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 18.2 years, $100 invested in TEL would have grown to $736, compared to $744 for the S&P 500. That's 11.6% annualized vs 11.6% for the index. TEL has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TEL pay a dividend?
Yes. TE Connectivity plc currently pays a dividend yield of 145.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31