TDW
Tidewater Inc. Energy - Marine Services Investor Relations →
Tidewater Inc. (TDW) closed at $64.67 as of 2026-06-19, trading 8.5% above its 200-week moving average of $59.62. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 29.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 39, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.81 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2365 weeks of data, TDW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times. On average, these episodes lasted 42 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TDW at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +12.6%.
With a market cap of $3.2 billion, TDW is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 12.0%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 24.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 2.4x book value.
TDW passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TDW would have grown to $18, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. TDW has returned -5.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 146.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TDW vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TDW Crosses Below the Line?
Across 24 historical episodes, buying TDW when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +15.9% after 12 months (median +18.0%), compared to +13.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 60% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +4.5% vs +27.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TDW crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TDW would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TDW's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-03.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $63.24 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $82.05 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $116.77 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $202.46 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $760.47 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TDW's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TDW has crossed below its 200-week MA 29 times with an average 1-year return of +12.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1981 | May 1981 | 2 | 3.1% | -29.3% | -90.8% |
| Jun 1981 | Jul 1981 | 4 | 9.5% | -44.9% | -90.6% |
| Aug 1981 | Sep 1981 | 4 | 7.8% | -35.5% | -91.1% |
| Jan 1982 | Jan 1989 | 366 | 82.3% | -22.2% | -91.1% |
| Jan 1989 | Feb 1989 | 1 | 0.6% | +59.1% | -61.1% |
| Dec 1991 | Jan 1992 | 6 | 9.2% | +66.6% | -70.2% |
| Mar 1992 | Mar 1992 | 2 | 1.4% | +87.0% | -73.5% |
| Jan 1995 | Feb 1995 | 5 | 4.2% | +86.8% | -82.7% |
| Jun 1998 | May 2000 | 102 | 50.8% | -12.4% | -91.4% |
| Jul 2000 | Aug 2000 | 6 | 8.9% | +18.4% | -91.7% |
| Jul 2001 | Dec 2001 | 23 | 21.2% | -18.1% | -92.1% |
| Jan 2002 | Jan 2002 | 2 | 4.4% | -4.1% | -91.4% |
| Jun 2002 | Sep 2004 | 116 | 26.2% | -7.9% | -91.8% |
| Oct 2004 | Nov 2004 | 3 | 2.5% | +48.0% | -91.7% |
| Sep 2008 | Jan 2010 | 66 | 35.9% | -6.9% | -95.1% |
| Jan 2010 | Apr 2010 | 13 | 11.6% | +16.9% | -95.0% |
| May 2010 | Nov 2010 | 30 | 21.5% | +15.5% | -95.1% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 3 | 10.6% | +9.1% | -95.0% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 0.8% | -2.7% | -95.1% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 6 | 4.0% | +29.9% | -95.0% |
| Oct 2012 | Oct 2012 | 1 | 0.1% | +31.7% | -95.2% |
| Nov 2012 | Jan 2013 | 10 | 7.6% | +39.7% | -94.9% |
| Feb 2013 | Mar 2013 | 2 | 0.7% | +6.4% | -95.2% |
| Feb 2014 | Apr 2014 | 11 | 6.6% | -30.1% | -95.4% |
| Jul 2014 | Feb 2022 | 399 | 96.8% | -53.9% | -95.7% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 17 | 25.7% | +80.3% | +49.9% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 3 | 2.3% | N/A | +34.9% |
| Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 | 4 | 5.7% | N/A | +34.8% |
| Dec 2025 | Jan 2026 | 3 | 5.2% | N/A | +28.4% |
| Average | 42 | — | +12.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TDW below its 200-week moving average?
No. Tidewater Inc. (TDW) is currently 8.5% above its 200-week moving average of $59.62. It would need to fall to $59.62 to cross below the line.
What is TDW's 200-week moving average price?
Tidewater Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $59.62 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TDW drops below its 200-week moving average?
TDW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +12.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 42 weeks on average.
Is TDW a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TDW as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 39. Free cash flow yield is 12.0%. Return on equity is 24.0%. Price-to-book is 2.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TDW compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in TDW would have grown to $18, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's -5.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. TDW has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19