TD
Toronto-Dominion Bank Financial Services Investor Relations →
Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) closed at $120.97 as of 2026-09-11, trading 77.7% above its 200-week moving average of $68.06. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 79.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 63, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.12 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1519 weeks of data, TD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TD at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +27.3%.
With a market cap of $198.2 billion, TD is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 12.8%. The stock trades at 2.2x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.2% over the past three years.
Over the past 29.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TD would have grown to $4873, compared to $1392 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.3% vs 9.4% for the index — confirming TD as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TD vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TD Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying TD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +32.5% after 12 months (median +29.0%), compared to +19.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 85% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +69.3% vs +41.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TD would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TD's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-12-03.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $87.49 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $96.13 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $106.66 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $119.79 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $136.59 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | $2.47 | $2.77 | +12.1% |
| 2026-05-28 | $2.26 | $2.38 | +5.3% |
| 2026-02-26 | $2.17 | $2.34 | +7.8% |
| 2025-12-04 | $1.94 | $1.82 | -6.0% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TD's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TD has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +27.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1998 | Nov 1998 | 14 | 21.7% | +27.5% | +4309.7% |
| Jul 2002 | Mar 2003 | 36 | 29.6% | +36.5% | +2785.9% |
| Oct 2008 | Jul 2009 | 40 | 49.5% | +50.6% | +989.8% |
| Jan 2015 | Feb 2015 | 1 | 0.6% | -1.3% | +377.1% |
| Jul 2015 | Oct 2015 | 11 | 5.8% | +13.8% | +369.7% |
| Nov 2015 | Nov 2015 | 1 | 1.4% | +18.2% | +361.0% |
| Dec 2015 | Mar 2016 | 13 | 15.7% | +33.7% | +376.0% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 36 | 26.4% | +35.3% | +223.1% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 2 | 1.3% | +11.1% | +144.6% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 4.0% | +7.9% | +143.8% |
| Apr 2024 | Aug 2024 | 19 | 8.7% | +8.1% | +129.8% |
| Oct 2024 | Feb 2025 | 18 | 12.4% | +42.5% | +123.4% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 2.7% | +70.9% | +120.3% |
| Average | 15 | — | +27.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TD below its 200-week moving average?
No. Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) is currently 77.7% above its 200-week moving average of $68.06. It would need to fall to $68.06 to cross below the line.
What is TD's 200-week moving average price?
Toronto-Dominion Bank's 200-week moving average is $68.06 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TD drops below its 200-week moving average?
TD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +27.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 15 weeks on average.
Is TD a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TD as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 63. Return on equity is 12.8%. Price-to-book is 2.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TD compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 29.2 years, $100 invested in TD would have grown to $4873, compared to $1392 for the S&P 500. That's 14.3% annualized vs 9.4% for the index. TD has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TD pay a dividend?
Yes. Toronto-Dominion Bank currently pays a dividend yield of 269.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11