TCOM
Trip.com Group Limited Consumer Discretionary - Travel Services Investor Relations →
Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) closed at $45.10 as of 2026-06-19, trading 8.2% below its 200-week moving average of $49.10. This places TCOM in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -5.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 37, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.85 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1127 weeks of data, TCOM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times. On average, these episodes lasted 36 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TCOM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +9.3%.
With a market cap of $28.4 billion, TCOM is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.7%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 21.1%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 1.2x book value.
TCOM passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 21.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TCOM would have grown to $1376, compared to $946 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.9% vs 10.9% for the index — confirming TCOM as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TCOM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TCOM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying TCOM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +4.8% after 12 months (median -10.0%), compared to +9.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 38% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +43.5% vs +25.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TCOM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TCOM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TCOM has crossed below its 200-week MA 9 times with an average 1-year return of +9.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2008 | May 2009 | 28 | 40.5% | +134.6% | +597.2% |
| Nov 2011 | Jun 2013 | 81 | 57.4% | -31.6% | +252.5% |
| Jun 2013 | Jun 2013 | 1 | 1.3% | +90.5% | +189.1% |
| Apr 2018 | May 2018 | 2 | 1.7% | +6.5% | +11.5% |
| Jul 2018 | Mar 2019 | 35 | 39.3% | -7.0% | +7.6% |
| Apr 2019 | Feb 2021 | 95 | 47.0% | -45.1% | +4.7% |
| Mar 2021 | Apr 2021 | 4 | 2.7% | -39.8% | +21.6% |
| Jun 2021 | Nov 2022 | 75 | 41.5% | -33.8% | +26.8% |
| May 2026 | Ongoing | 5+ | 8.1% | Ongoing | -2.7% |
| Average | 36 | — | +9.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TCOM below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) is trading 8.2% below its 200-week moving average of $49.10. The current price is $45.10.
What is TCOM's 200-week moving average price?
Trip.com Group Limited's 200-week moving average is $49.10 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TCOM drops below its 200-week moving average?
TCOM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +9.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 36 weeks on average.
Is TCOM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TCOM as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 37. Free cash flow yield is 7.7%. Return on equity is 21.1%. Price-to-book is 1.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TCOM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 21.7 years, $100 invested in TCOM would have grown to $1376, compared to $946 for the S&P 500. That's 12.9% annualized vs 10.9% for the index. TCOM has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TCOM pay a dividend?
Yes. Trip.com Group Limited currently pays a dividend yield of 57.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19