TCBI
Texas Capital Bancshares Inc. Financial Services - Banking Investor Relations →
Texas Capital Bancshares Inc. (TCBI) closed at $94.90 as of 2026-09-18, trading 29.1% above its 200-week moving average of $73.51. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 35.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 38, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.75 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1157 weeks of data, TCBI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TCBI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.6%.
With a market cap of $4.1 billion, TCBI is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 10.2%. The stock trades at 1.2x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 9.3% over the past three years.
Over the past 22.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TCBI would have grown to $579, compared to $1033 for the S&P 500. TCBI has returned 8.2% annualized vs 11.1% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 36.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TCBI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TCBI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying TCBI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +15.3% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +10.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 65% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +36.5% vs +18.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TCBI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TCBI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TCBI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-21.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $94.57 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $99.22 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $104.36 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $110.06 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $116.41 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | $1.86 | $1.88 | +1.3% |
| 2026-04-23 | $1.41 | $1.58 | +12.4% |
| 2026-01-22 | $1.77 | $2.08 | +17.8% |
| 2025-10-22 | $1.77 | $2.18 | +22.9% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TCBI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TCBI has crossed below its 200-week MA 23 times with an average 1-year return of +14.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2006 | Aug 2006 | 3 | 1.1% | +3.8% | +403.9% |
| Sep 2006 | Oct 2006 | 4 | 3.4% | +18.1% | +415.9% |
| Jan 2007 | Jan 2007 | 2 | 1.6% | -21.1% | +402.6% |
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 2 | 1.5% | -14.6% | +390.2% |
| Dec 2007 | Mar 2010 | 117 | 64.4% | -26.1% | +402.8% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 1 | 1.3% | +41.6% | +450.8% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 1 | 5.8% | +58.8% | +478.2% |
| Jul 2010 | Oct 2010 | 11 | 11.2% | +86.1% | +514.4% |
| Jan 2015 | Feb 2015 | 2 | 6.4% | -22.7% | +120.1% |
| Dec 2015 | Aug 2016 | 36 | 34.6% | +58.5% | +92.4% |
| Oct 2018 | Jan 2021 | 117 | 68.5% | -16.7% | +42.6% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 7.1% | +2.8% | +58.2% |
| Jun 2021 | Aug 2021 | 7 | 3.5% | -17.6% | +52.8% |
| Aug 2021 | Nov 2021 | 9 | 10.6% | -3.8% | +58.1% |
| Nov 2021 | Jan 2022 | 7 | 6.6% | -3.2% | +63.9% |
| Mar 2022 | Jul 2022 | 16 | 11.1% | -14.0% | +67.3% |
| Dec 2022 | Dec 2022 | 1 | 1.1% | +13.8% | +73.9% |
| Mar 2023 | Jul 2023 | 17 | 20.5% | +9.3% | +76.6% |
| Oct 2023 | Nov 2023 | 6 | 2.9% | +47.5% | +77.8% |
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2024 | 3 | 2.1% | +9.7% | +68.6% |
| Jun 2024 | Jul 2024 | 5 | 3.3% | +29.5% | +62.3% |
| Aug 2024 | Aug 2024 | 1 | 0.1% | +33.4% | +58.5% |
| Apr 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 0.3% | +62.5% | +53.7% |
| Average | 16 | — | +14.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TCBI below its 200-week moving average?
No. Texas Capital Bancshares Inc. (TCBI) is currently 29.1% above its 200-week moving average of $73.51. It would need to fall to $73.51 to cross below the line.
What is TCBI's 200-week moving average price?
Texas Capital Bancshares Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $73.51 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TCBI drops below its 200-week moving average?
TCBI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +14.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is TCBI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TCBI as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 38. Return on equity is 10.2%. Price-to-book is 1.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TCBI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 22.2 years, $100 invested in TCBI would have grown to $579, compared to $1033 for the S&P 500. That's 8.2% annualized vs 11.1% for the index. TCBI has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TCBI pay a dividend?
Yes. Texas Capital Bancshares Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 84.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18