TAL
TAL Education Group Consumer Discretionary - Education Investor Relations →
TAL Education Group (TAL) closed at $9.19 as of 2026-06-19, trading 4.8% below its 200-week moving average of $9.65. This places TAL in the below line zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -3.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 35, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.81 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 769 weeks of data, TAL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times. On average, these episodes lasted 70 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TAL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +20.0%.
With a market cap of $5.1 billion, TAL is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 8.0%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 14.1%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 13.1% over the past three years.
Over the past 14.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TAL would have grown to $615, compared to $859 for the S&P 500. TAL has returned 13.0% annualized vs 15.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TAL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TAL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 3 historical episodes, buying TAL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +24.3% after 12 months (median -13.0%), compared to +18.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 33% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +76.0% vs +30.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TAL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TAL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TAL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-04-23.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $9.94 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $10.51 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $11.16 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $11.89 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $12.72 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TAL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TAL has crossed below its 200-week MA 4 times with an average 1-year return of +20.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2011 | May 2013 | 86 | 34.8% | -12.9% | +515.2% |
| Jun 2013 | Jun 2013 | 1 | 3.0% | +163.3% | +453.1% |
| May 2021 | Jan 2025 | 192 | 95.0% | -90.4% | -78.6% |
| Jun 2026 | Ongoing | 3+ | 4.8% | Ongoing | -3.9% |
| Average | 70 | — | +20.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TAL below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, TAL Education Group (TAL) is trading 4.8% below its 200-week moving average of $9.65. The current price is $9.19.
What is TAL's 200-week moving average price?
TAL Education Group's 200-week moving average is $9.65 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TAL drops below its 200-week moving average?
TAL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +20.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 70 weeks on average.
Is TAL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TAL as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 35. Free cash flow yield is 8.0%. Return on equity is 14.1%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TAL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 14.8 years, $100 invested in TAL would have grown to $615, compared to $859 for the S&P 500. That's 13.0% annualized vs 15.6% for the index. TAL has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19