TAL
TAL Education Group Consumer Discretionary - Education Investor Relations →
TAL Education Group (TAL) closed at $11.43 as of 2026-03-20, trading 23.4% above its 200-week moving average of $9.26. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 20.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 49, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.92 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 756 weeks of data, TAL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times. On average, these episodes lasted 93 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TAL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +20.0%.
With a market cap of $7.0 billion, TAL is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.8%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 7.7%. The stock trades at 1.8x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.1% over the past three years.
Over the past 14.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TAL would have grown to $765, compared to $744 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.0% vs 14.8% for the index — confirming TAL as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TAL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TAL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 3 historical episodes, buying TAL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +24.3% after 12 months (median -13.0%), compared to +18.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 33% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +76.0% vs +30.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TAL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
TAL has crossed below its 200-week MA 3 times with an average 1-year return of +20.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2011 | May 2013 | 86 | 34.8% | -12.9% | +665.1% |
| Jun 2013 | Jun 2013 | 1 | 3.0% | +163.3% | +587.9% |
| May 2021 | Jan 2025 | 192 | 95.0% | -90.4% | -73.4% |
| Average | 93 | — | +20.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TAL below its 200-week moving average?
No. TAL Education Group (TAL) is currently 23.4% above its 200-week moving average of $9.26. It would need to fall to $9.26 to cross below the line.
What is TAL's 200-week moving average price?
TAL Education Group's 200-week moving average is $9.26 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TAL drops below its 200-week moving average?
TAL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +20.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 93 weeks on average.
Is TAL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TAL as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 49. Free cash flow yield is 5.8%. Return on equity is 7.7%. Price-to-book is 1.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TAL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 14.6 years, $100 invested in TAL would have grown to $765, compared to $744 for the S&P 500. That's 15.0% annualized vs 14.8% for the index. TAL has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20