SWK
Stanley Black & Decker Inc. Industrials - Tools Investor Relations →
Stanley Black & Decker Inc. (SWK) closed at $86.75 as of 2026-06-19, trading 13.6% above its 200-week moving average of $76.37. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 8.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 74, SWK is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.06 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2365 weeks of data, SWK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SWK at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.5%.
With a market cap of $13.5 billion, SWK is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.2%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 4.2%. The stock trades at 1.5x book value.
SWK is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SWK would have grown to $1048, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. SWK has returned 7.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: SWK vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SWK Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying SWK when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +14.1% after 12 months (median +7.0%), compared to +7.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 60% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +43.4% vs +29.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SWK crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices SWK would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where SWK's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $62.28 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $67.19 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $72.94 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $79.77 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $88.00 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from SWK's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
SWK has crossed below its 200-week MA 23 times with an average 1-year return of +14.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1981 | Aug 1982 | 58 | 23.5% | -10.4% | +4968.4% |
| Jul 1984 | Jul 1984 | 1 | 2.3% | +48.7% | +4253.6% |
| Aug 1990 | Aug 1990 | 1 | 0.2% | +44.5% | +1512.3% |
| Oct 1990 | Dec 1990 | 8 | 6.4% | +44.1% | +1606.1% |
| Dec 1990 | Jan 1991 | 2 | 6.6% | +47.8% | +1493.0% |
| Nov 1994 | Jan 1995 | 8 | 7.0% | +35.3% | +982.9% |
| Jun 1995 | Jul 1995 | 3 | 1.6% | +55.6% | +954.0% |
| Sep 1998 | Jan 2001 | 122 | 37.3% | -12.0% | +537.6% |
| Oct 2002 | Oct 2002 | 2 | 6.2% | +9.3% | +450.6% |
| Jan 2003 | Oct 2003 | 39 | 33.3% | +42.2% | +467.4% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 4 | 5.6% | -17.6% | +219.0% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 1 | 0.9% | -48.4% | +200.9% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 1 | 0.3% | -31.9% | +198.3% |
| Jun 2008 | Aug 2008 | 11 | 10.9% | -21.6% | +196.3% |
| Sep 2008 | Oct 2009 | 57 | 48.7% | -11.7% | +193.4% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 2 | 9.0% | +29.6% | -7.6% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 3 | 6.7% | +41.8% | -8.2% |
| Jan 2019 | Jan 2019 | 1 | 1.8% | +40.8% | -9.9% |
| Mar 2020 | Jun 2020 | 16 | 40.8% | +47.2% | -16.9% |
| Mar 2022 | Jan 2026 | 200 | 49.8% | -43.2% | -29.7% |
| Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 | 1 | 1.8% | N/A | +12.7% |
| Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | 8 | 13.9% | N/A | +16.5% |
| May 2026 | May 2026 | 2 | 2.9% | N/A | +16.7% |
| Average | 24 | — | +14.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SWK below its 200-week moving average?
No. Stanley Black & Decker Inc. (SWK) is currently 13.6% above its 200-week moving average of $76.37. It would need to fall to $76.37 to cross below the line.
What is SWK's 200-week moving average price?
Stanley Black & Decker Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $76.37 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when SWK drops below its 200-week moving average?
SWK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +14.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is SWK a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about SWK as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 74 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 6.2%. Return on equity is 4.2%. Price-to-book is 1.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does SWK compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in SWK would have grown to $1048, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 7.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. SWK has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19