SW
Smurfit Westrock plc Consumer Cyclical Investor Relations →
Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) closed at $39.43 as of 2026-05-01, trading 1.2% above its 200-week moving average of $38.96. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 2.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 44, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.16 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 884 weeks of data, SW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 10 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SW at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +38.9%.
With a market cap of $20.7 billion, SW is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.3%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 2.1%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
Share count has increased 101.6% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 17 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SW would have grown to $1237, compared to $1054 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.9% vs 14.9% for the index — confirming SW as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $595,182.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 33.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: SW vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SW Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying SW when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +35.2% after 12 months (median +27.0%), compared to +22.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +90.4% vs +49.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SW crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
SW has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +38.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2011 | Jan 2012 | 25 | 24.2% | +6.3% | +685.3% |
| Jun 2012 | Jul 2012 | 8 | 15.1% | +145.8% | +742.7% |
| Oct 2016 | Dec 2016 | 9 | 3.8% | +54.7% | +147.7% |
| Nov 2018 | Feb 2019 | 12 | 13.7% | +27.6% | +84.6% |
| Feb 2019 | Apr 2019 | 5 | 6.8% | +18.9% | +85.4% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 3 | 3.8% | +6.3% | +83.5% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 0.5% | +24.1% | +79.1% |
| Sep 2019 | Oct 2019 | 1 | 0.3% | +48.3% | +77.2% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 10 | 18.5% | +97.6% | +90.7% |
| Jun 2022 | Jan 2023 | 29 | 29.1% | +18.6% | +36.5% |
| Feb 2023 | Jul 2023 | 20 | 14.2% | +14.1% | +18.7% |
| Aug 2023 | Dec 2023 | 16 | 18.7% | +23.9% | +12.4% |
| Jan 2024 | Feb 2024 | 6 | 8.8% | +43.3% | +12.0% |
| Aug 2024 | Aug 2024 | 1 | 2.3% | +15.5% | +6.3% |
| Oct 2025 | Dec 2025 | 8 | 13.1% | N/A | +7.7% |
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | 1 | 6.5% | N/A | +8.9% |
| Average | 10 | — | +38.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SW below its 200-week moving average?
No. Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) is currently 1.2% above its 200-week moving average of $38.96. It would need to fall to $38.96 to cross below the line.
What is SW's 200-week moving average price?
Smurfit Westrock plc's 200-week moving average is $38.96 as of 2026-05-01. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when SW drops below its 200-week moving average?
SW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +38.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 10 weeks on average.
Is SW a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about SW as of 2026-05-01: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 44. Free cash flow yield is 6.3%. Return on equity is 2.1%. Price-to-book is 1.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does SW compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 17 years, $100 invested in SW would have grown to $1237, compared to $1054 for the S&P 500. That's 15.9% annualized vs 14.9% for the index. SW has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does SW pay a dividend?
Yes. Smurfit Westrock plc currently pays a dividend yield of 459.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-01