SW
Smurfit Westrock plc Consumer Cyclical Investor Relations →
Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) closed at $43.22 as of 2026-09-11, trading 8.8% above its 200-week moving average of $39.74. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 15.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 55, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.05 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 903 weeks of data, SW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 9 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SW at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +38.9%.
With a market cap of $22.7 billion, SW is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.4%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 2.7%. The stock trades at 1.3x book value.
Share count has increased 101.6% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 17.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SW would have grown to $1384, compared to $1124 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.3% vs 14.9% for the index — confirming SW as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 33.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: SW vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SW Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying SW when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +35.2% after 12 months (median +27.0%), compared to +22.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +84.1% vs +48.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SW crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices SW would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where SW's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $41.89 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $44.72 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $47.95 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $51.69 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $56.06 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $0.42 | $0.35 | -16.9% |
| 2026-04-30 | $0.40 | $0.33 | -17.4% |
| 2026-02-11 | $0.50 | $0.28 | -43.0% |
| 2025-10-29 | $0.72 | $0.58 | -19.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from SW's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
SW has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +38.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2011 | Jan 2012 | 25 | 24.2% | +6.3% | +778.5% |
| Jun 2012 | Jul 2012 | 8 | 15.1% | +145.8% | +842.8% |
| Oct 2016 | Dec 2016 | 9 | 3.8% | +54.7% | +177.1% |
| Nov 2018 | Feb 2019 | 12 | 13.7% | +27.6% | +106.5% |
| Feb 2019 | Apr 2019 | 5 | 6.8% | +18.9% | +107.4% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 3 | 3.8% | +6.3% | +105.3% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 0.6% | +24.1% | +100.4% |
| Sep 2019 | Oct 2019 | 1 | 0.3% | +48.3% | +98.2% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 10 | 18.6% | +97.6% | +113.3% |
| Jun 2022 | Jan 2023 | 29 | 29.2% | +18.6% | +52.8% |
| Feb 2023 | Jul 2023 | 22 | 14.3% | +14.1% | +32.7% |
| Aug 2023 | Dec 2023 | 16 | 18.8% | +23.9% | +25.7% |
| Jan 2024 | Feb 2024 | 6 | 8.8% | +43.3% | +25.3% |
| Aug 2024 | Aug 2024 | 1 | 2.3% | +15.5% | +19.0% |
| Oct 2025 | Dec 2025 | 8 | 13.2% | N/A | +20.5% |
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | 1 | 6.5% | N/A | +21.8% |
| May 2026 | May 2026 | 2 | 3.0% | N/A | +16.4% |
| Average | 9 | — | +38.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SW below its 200-week moving average?
No. Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) is currently 8.8% above its 200-week moving average of $39.74. It would need to fall to $39.74 to cross below the line.
What is SW's 200-week moving average price?
Smurfit Westrock plc's 200-week moving average is $39.74 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when SW drops below its 200-week moving average?
SW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +38.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 9 weeks on average.
Is SW a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about SW as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 55. Free cash flow yield is 5.4%. Return on equity is 2.7%. Price-to-book is 1.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does SW compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 17.4 years, $100 invested in SW would have grown to $1384, compared to $1124 for the S&P 500. That's 16.3% annualized vs 14.9% for the index. SW has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does SW pay a dividend?
Yes. Smurfit Westrock plc currently pays a dividend yield of 429.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11