SW

Smurfit Westrock plc Consumer Cyclical Investor Relations →

NO
1.2% ABOVE
↓ Approaching Was 2.7% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $38.96
14-Week RSI 44
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 1.3x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 1.16

Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) closed at $39.43 as of 2026-05-01, trading 1.2% above its 200-week moving average of $38.96. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 2.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 44, indicating neutral momentum.

Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.16 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 884 weeks of data, SW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 10 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SW at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +38.9%.

With a market cap of $20.7 billion, SW is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.3%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 2.1%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.

Share count has increased 101.6% over three years, indicating dilution.

Over the past 17 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SW would have grown to $1237, compared to $1054 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.9% vs 14.9% for the index — confirming SW as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.

In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $595,182.

Free cash flow has been growing at a 33.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: SW vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After SW Crosses Below the Line?

Across 15 historical episodes, buying SW when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +35.2% after 12 months (median +27.0%), compared to +22.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +90.4% vs +49.8% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SW crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

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Insider Buying Activity

1 conviction buy in the past 12 months (purchases over $500K with meaningful position increases).

DateInsiderTitleValueSharesPosition +%
2025-05-06FINAN IRIALDirector$595,18215,180+38.0%

Historical Touches

SW has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +38.9% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Aug 2011Jan 20122524.2%+6.3%+685.3%
Jun 2012Jul 2012815.1%+145.8%+742.7%
Oct 2016Dec 201693.8%+54.7%+147.7%
Nov 2018Feb 20191213.7%+27.6%+84.6%
Feb 2019Apr 201956.8%+18.9%+85.4%
May 2019Jun 201933.8%+6.3%+83.5%
Aug 2019Aug 201910.5%+24.1%+79.1%
Sep 2019Oct 201910.3%+48.3%+77.2%
Mar 2020May 20201018.5%+97.6%+90.7%
Jun 2022Jan 20232929.1%+18.6%+36.5%
Feb 2023Jul 20232014.2%+14.1%+18.7%
Aug 2023Dec 20231618.7%+23.9%+12.4%
Jan 2024Feb 202468.8%+43.3%+12.0%
Aug 2024Aug 202412.3%+15.5%+6.3%
Oct 2025Dec 2025813.1%N/A+7.7%
Mar 2026Mar 202616.5%N/A+8.9%
Average10+38.9%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is SW below its 200-week moving average?

No. Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) is currently 1.2% above its 200-week moving average of $38.96. It would need to fall to $38.96 to cross below the line.

What is SW's 200-week moving average price?

Smurfit Westrock plc's 200-week moving average is $38.96 as of 2026-05-01. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when SW drops below its 200-week moving average?

SW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +38.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 10 weeks on average.

Is SW a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about SW as of 2026-05-01: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 44. Free cash flow yield is 6.3%. Return on equity is 2.1%. Price-to-book is 1.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does SW compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 17 years, $100 invested in SW would have grown to $1237, compared to $1054 for the S&P 500. That's 15.9% annualized vs 14.9% for the index. SW has outperformed the broader market over this period.

Does SW pay a dividend?

Yes. Smurfit Westrock plc currently pays a dividend yield of 459.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-05-01