SW
Smurfit Westrock plc Consumer Cyclical Investor Relations →
Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) closed at $36.21 as of 2026-03-20, trading 6.5% below its 200-week moving average of $38.72. This places SW in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 2.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 49, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.98 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 878 weeks of data, SW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 10 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SW at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +38.9%.
With a market cap of $19.0 billion, SW is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.7%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 3.9%. The stock trades at 1.0x book value.
Share count has increased 101.6% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 16.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SW would have grown to $1136, compared to $952 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.4% vs 14.2% for the index — confirming SW as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $595,182. Notably, these purchases occurred while SW is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 33.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: SW vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SW Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying SW when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +35.2% after 12 months (median +27.0%), compared to +22.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +90.4% vs +49.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SW crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
SW has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +38.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2011 | Jan 2012 | 25 | 24.2% | +6.3% | +621.2% |
| Jun 2012 | Jul 2012 | 8 | 15.1% | +145.8% | +673.9% |
| Oct 2016 | Dec 2016 | 9 | 3.8% | +54.7% | +127.5% |
| Nov 2018 | Feb 2019 | 12 | 13.7% | +27.6% | +69.5% |
| Feb 2019 | Apr 2019 | 5 | 6.8% | +18.9% | +70.3% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 3 | 3.8% | +6.3% | +68.5% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 0.5% | +24.1% | +64.5% |
| Sep 2019 | Oct 2019 | 1 | 0.3% | +48.3% | +62.7% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 10 | 18.5% | +97.6% | +75.1% |
| Jun 2022 | Jan 2023 | 29 | 29.1% | +18.6% | +25.4% |
| Feb 2023 | Jul 2023 | 20 | 14.2% | +14.1% | +9.0% |
| Aug 2023 | Dec 2023 | 16 | 18.7% | +23.9% | +3.2% |
| Jan 2024 | Feb 2024 | 6 | 8.8% | +43.3% | +2.9% |
| Aug 2024 | Aug 2024 | 1 | 2.3% | +15.5% | -2.4% |
| Oct 2025 | Dec 2025 | 8 | 13.1% | N/A | -1.1% |
| Mar 2026 | Ongoing | 1+ | 6.5% | Ongoing | N/A |
| Average | 10 | — | +38.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SW below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) is trading 6.5% below its 200-week moving average of $38.72. The current price is $36.21.
What is SW's 200-week moving average price?
Smurfit Westrock plc's 200-week moving average is $38.72 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when SW drops below its 200-week moving average?
SW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +38.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 10 weeks on average.
Is SW a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about SW as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 49. Free cash flow yield is 7.7%. Return on equity is 3.9%. Price-to-book is 1.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does SW compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 16.9 years, $100 invested in SW would have grown to $1136, compared to $952 for the S&P 500. That's 15.4% annualized vs 14.2% for the index. SW has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does SW pay a dividend?
Yes. Smurfit Westrock plc currently pays a dividend yield of 500.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20