SUI
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Sun Communities, Inc. (SUI) closed at $123.48 as of 2026-07-31, trading 4.4% above its 200-week moving average of $118.27. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 3.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 45, indicating neutral momentum.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.4x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 1655 weeks of data, SUI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SUI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +8.3%.
With a market cap of $15.8 billion, SUI is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 11.9%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 1.7%. The stock trades at 2.7x book value.
Over the past 31.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SUI would have grown to $3882, compared to $2859 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.2% vs 11.1% for the index — confirming SUI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 5.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: SUI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SUI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying SUI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.5% after 12 months (median +2.0%), compared to +11.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 56% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +11.4% vs +14.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SUI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices SUI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where SUI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $116.86 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $123.10 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $130.06 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $137.84 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $146.61 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from SUI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
SUI has crossed below its 200-week MA 21 times with an average 1-year return of +8.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1994 | Dec 1994 | 3 | 4.0% | +29.5% | +3735.9% |
| Jan 1995 | Jan 1995 | 1 | 0.1% | +29.5% | +3616.9% |
| Apr 1995 | Apr 1995 | 1 | 0.2% | +32.6% | +3587.7% |
| Feb 2000 | Apr 2000 | 5 | 5.9% | +16.3% | +1875.9% |
| Oct 2000 | Oct 2000 | 1 | 0.9% | +36.1% | +1795.0% |
| Aug 2005 | Aug 2005 | 4 | 1.2% | +4.9% | +1128.5% |
| Sep 2005 | Jan 2006 | 19 | 8.6% | +6.5% | +1138.5% |
| May 2006 | May 2006 | 2 | 1.1% | +5.5% | +1120.8% |
| Jun 2006 | Jun 2006 | 3 | 4.0% | +2.8% | +1118.2% |
| Jul 2006 | Jul 2006 | 1 | 1.1% | +2.4% | +1118.3% |
| Aug 2006 | Aug 2006 | 3 | 1.7% | -5.2% | +1123.8% |
| Sep 2006 | Sep 2006 | 1 | 0.7% | +2.4% | +1104.7% |
| Feb 2007 | Jul 2007 | 18 | 3.6% | -25.2% | +1118.4% |
| Jul 2007 | Sep 2007 | 10 | 10.1% | -32.8% | +1090.2% |
| Oct 2007 | Sep 2009 | 98 | 63.5% | -40.2% | +1084.2% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 1 | 1.5% | +106.3% | +1347.2% |
| Sep 2022 | Jan 2023 | 19 | 19.8% | -14.8% | -1.8% |
| Feb 2023 | Sep 2025 | 132 | 29.0% | -7.7% | -2.9% |
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2025 | 3 | 2.4% | N/A | +2.8% |
| Dec 2025 | Jan 2026 | 4 | 1.7% | N/A | +3.8% |
| Jun 2026 | Jun 2026 | 1 | 1.0% | N/A | +5.2% |
| Average | 16 | — | +8.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SUI below its 200-week moving average?
No. Sun Communities, Inc. (SUI) is currently 4.4% above its 200-week moving average of $118.27. It would need to fall to $118.27 to cross below the line.
What is SUI's 200-week moving average price?
Sun Communities, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $118.27 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when SUI drops below its 200-week moving average?
SUI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +8.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is SUI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about SUI as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 45. Free cash flow yield is 11.9%. Return on equity is 1.7%. Price-to-book is 2.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does SUI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 31.8 years, $100 invested in SUI would have grown to $3882, compared to $2859 for the S&P 500. That's 12.2% annualized vs 11.1% for the index. SUI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does SUI pay a dividend?
Yes. Sun Communities, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 347.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31