STZ
Constellation Brands Inc. Consumer Staples - Beverages Investor Relations →
Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ) closed at $149.62 as of 2026-03-20, trading 28.2% below its 200-week moving average of $208.30. This places STZ in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -28.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 52, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.92 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1726 weeks of data, STZ has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times. On average, these episodes lasted 17 weeks. Historically, investors who bought STZ at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +26.9%.
With a market cap of $26.0 billion, STZ is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.6%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 14.5%. The stock trades at 3.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.1% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in STZ would have grown to $8796, compared to $2654 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.5% vs 10.4% for the index — confirming STZ as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 4.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: STZ vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After STZ Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying STZ when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +17.2% after 12 months (median +17.0%), compared to +6.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 70% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +45.9% vs +14.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment STZ crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
STZ has crossed below its 200-week MA 20 times with an average 1-year return of +26.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1993 | Apr 1993 | 2 | 5.3% | +86.0% | +9775.7% |
| May 1996 | May 1996 | 2 | 2.4% | -3.0% | +4794.9% |
| Jul 1996 | Jun 1997 | 49 | 43.5% | +31.6% | +4837.9% |
| Sep 1998 | Sep 1998 | 1 | 0.1% | +48.2% | +3543.5% |
| Mar 2000 | Mar 2000 | 1 | 1.7% | +62.4% | +3177.5% |
| Aug 2000 | Aug 2000 | 1 | 1.9% | +92.7% | +2992.9% |
| Oct 2000 | Oct 2000 | 2 | 2.4% | +85.1% | +2866.6% |
| Feb 2007 | Apr 2007 | 7 | 13.7% | -1.4% | +802.6% |
| Apr 2007 | May 2007 | 1 | 0.2% | -17.6% | +682.5% |
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 3 | 5.0% | -5.1% | +665.8% |
| Nov 2007 | Dec 2007 | 4 | 3.0% | -45.0% | +665.2% |
| Dec 2007 | Oct 2010 | 144 | 52.2% | -27.8% | +672.2% |
| Sep 2011 | Sep 2011 | 1 | 0.4% | +88.8% | +898.4% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 6 | 6.3% | +18.3% | +4.1% |
| Feb 2019 | Mar 2019 | 5 | 3.1% | +24.5% | -0.5% |
| Nov 2019 | Nov 2019 | 2 | 1.4% | +14.4% | -7.4% |
| Dec 2019 | Dec 2019 | 1 | 0.6% | +14.7% | -8.7% |
| Feb 2020 | Aug 2020 | 26 | 35.3% | +26.3% | -3.9% |
| Sep 2020 | Nov 2020 | 7 | 11.5% | +18.6% | -9.7% |
| Dec 2024 | Ongoing | 66+ | 41.1% | Ongoing | -32.2% |
| Average | 17 | — | +26.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STZ below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ) is trading 28.2% below its 200-week moving average of $208.30. The current price is $149.62.
What is STZ's 200-week moving average price?
Constellation Brands Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $208.30 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when STZ drops below its 200-week moving average?
STZ has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +26.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 17 weeks on average.
Is STZ a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about STZ as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 52. Free cash flow yield is 7.6%. Return on equity is 14.5%. Price-to-book is 3.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does STZ compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.2 years, $100 invested in STZ would have grown to $8796, compared to $2654 for the S&P 500. That's 14.5% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. STZ has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does STZ pay a dividend?
Yes. Constellation Brands Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 273.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20