STZ
Constellation Brands Inc. Consumer Staples - Beverages Investor Relations →
Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ) closed at $164.33 as of 2026-02-02, trading 22.0% below its 200-week moving average of $210.64. This places STZ in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -26.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 75, STZ is in overbought territory.
Over the past 1720 weeks of data, STZ has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought STZ at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +26.9%.
With a market cap of $28.6 billion, STZ is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.9%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 14.5%. The stock trades at 3.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.1% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in STZ would have grown to $9660, compared to $2819 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.8% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming STZ as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 4.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Growth of $100: STZ vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After STZ Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying STZ when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +17.2% after 12 months (median +17.0%), compared to +6.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 70% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +45.9% vs +14.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment STZ crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
STZ has crossed below its 200-week MA 20 times with an average 1-year return of +26.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1993 | Apr 1993 | 2 | 5.3% | +86.0% | +10746.7% |
| May 1996 | May 1996 | 2 | 2.4% | -3.0% | +5276.2% |
| Jul 1996 | Jun 1997 | 49 | 43.5% | +31.6% | +5323.3% |
| Sep 1998 | Sep 1998 | 1 | 0.1% | +48.2% | +3901.7% |
| Mar 2000 | Mar 2000 | 1 | 1.7% | +62.4% | +3499.8% |
| Aug 2000 | Aug 2000 | 1 | 1.9% | +92.7% | +3297.0% |
| Oct 2000 | Oct 2000 | 2 | 2.4% | +85.1% | +3158.3% |
| Feb 2007 | Apr 2007 | 7 | 13.7% | -1.4% | +891.3% |
| Apr 2007 | May 2007 | 1 | 0.2% | -17.6% | +759.5% |
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 3 | 5.0% | -5.1% | +741.1% |
| Nov 2007 | Dec 2007 | 4 | 3.0% | -45.0% | +740.4% |
| Dec 2007 | Oct 2010 | 144 | 52.2% | -27.8% | +748.1% |
| Sep 2011 | Sep 2011 | 1 | 0.4% | +88.8% | +996.5% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 6 | 6.3% | +18.3% | +14.4% |
| Feb 2019 | Mar 2019 | 5 | 3.1% | +24.5% | +9.3% |
| Nov 2019 | Nov 2019 | 2 | 1.4% | +14.4% | +1.7% |
| Dec 2019 | Dec 2019 | 1 | 0.6% | +14.7% | +0.3% |
| Feb 2020 | Aug 2020 | 26 | 35.3% | +26.3% | +5.5% |
| Sep 2020 | Nov 2020 | 7 | 11.5% | +18.6% | -0.8% |
| Dec 2024 | Ongoing | 60+ | 41.1% | Ongoing | -25.5% |
| Average | 16 | — | +26.9% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02