STX
Seagate Technology Holdings plc Technology - Data Storage Investor Relations →
Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) closed at $858.79 as of 2026-09-18, trading 316.0% above its 200-week moving average of $206.45. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 310.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 47, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.13 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1192 weeks of data, STX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought STX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +50.9%.
With a market cap of $195.3 billion, STX is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.0%. Return on equity stands at 371.5%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 89.9x book value.
Share count has increased 9.5% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 22.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in STX would have grown to $9397, compared to $1088 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 21.9% vs 11.0% for the index — confirming STX as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 70.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: STX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After STX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying STX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +51.0% after 12 months (median +40.0%), compared to +12.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 77% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +79.2% vs +29.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment STX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices STX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where STX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-27.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $630.56 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $846.07 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $1285.40 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $2673.74 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | N/A | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | $5.09 | $5.71 | +12.1% |
| 2026-04-28 | $3.51 | $4.10 | +16.8% |
| 2026-01-27 | $2.84 | $3.11 | +9.6% |
| 2025-10-28 | $2.40 | $2.61 | +8.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from STX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
STX has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +50.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2004 | Feb 2004 | 2 | 3.7% | +9.9% | +11441.6% |
| Mar 2004 | Nov 2004 | 39 | 34.3% | +17.8% | +11175.5% |
| Sep 2005 | Nov 2005 | 8 | 11.0% | +49.3% | +11870.3% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 1 | 0.9% | -76.9% | +8708.9% |
| Apr 2008 | May 2008 | 4 | 4.9% | -63.6% | +8764.7% |
| Jun 2008 | Dec 2009 | 80 | 84.0% | -51.4% | +8366.0% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 1 | 4.7% | -17.4% | +9847.1% |
| May 2010 | Apr 2011 | 46 | 36.5% | +4.6% | +10066.1% |
| Jun 2011 | Jun 2011 | 1 | 4.0% | +72.7% | +11447.4% |
| Jul 2011 | Oct 2011 | 13 | 29.0% | +92.0% | +11193.8% |
| Oct 2015 | Jan 2017 | 67 | 53.1% | -3.2% | +3420.9% |
| Jun 2017 | Nov 2017 | 20 | 23.0% | +54.0% | +3056.8% |
| Nov 2017 | Dec 2017 | 1 | 0.5% | +15.7% | +2969.0% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 1 | 0.4% | +55.2% | +2845.0% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 4.2% | +61.3% | +2864.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 1.9% | +93.2% | +2522.8% |
| Sep 2022 | Jan 2023 | 18 | 19.0% | +18.2% | +1552.0% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 3 | 4.2% | +56.4% | +1424.6% |
| Apr 2023 | Jul 2023 | 15 | 12.3% | +51.8% | +1549.8% |
| Aug 2023 | Aug 2023 | 2 | 0.4% | +63.5% | +1330.7% |
| Sep 2023 | Sep 2023 | 1 | 1.8% | +65.7% | +1344.2% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 13.4% | +551.7% | +1204.5% |
| Average | 15 | — | +50.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STX below its 200-week moving average?
No. Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) is currently 316.0% above its 200-week moving average of $206.45. It would need to fall to $206.45 to cross below the line.
What is STX's 200-week moving average price?
Seagate Technology Holdings plc's 200-week moving average is $206.45 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when STX drops below its 200-week moving average?
STX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +50.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 15 weeks on average.
Is STX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about STX as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 47. Free cash flow yield is 1.0%. Return on equity is 371.5%. Price-to-book is 89.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does STX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 22.9 years, $100 invested in STX would have grown to $9397, compared to $1088 for the S&P 500. That's 21.9% annualized vs 11.0% for the index. STX has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does STX pay a dividend?
Yes. Seagate Technology Holdings plc currently pays a dividend yield of 34.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18