STX
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Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) closed at $429.32 as of 2026-02-02, trading 318.0% above its 200-week moving average of $102.71. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 303.9% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 81, STX is in overbought territory.
Over the past 1160 weeks of data, STX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought STX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +27.2%.
With a market cap of $93.6 billion, STX is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.2%. The stock trades at 204.1x book value.
Over the past 22.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in STX would have grown to $4686, compared to $979 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 18.8% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming STX as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: STX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After STX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying STX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +27.1% after 12 months (median +38.0%), compared to +11.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 76% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +79.4% vs +29.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment STX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
STX has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +27.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2004 | Feb 2004 | 2 | 3.7% | +9.9% | +5655.6% |
| Mar 2004 | Nov 2004 | 39 | 34.3% | +17.8% | +5522.9% |
| Sep 2005 | Nov 2005 | 8 | 11.0% | +49.3% | +5869.4% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 1 | 0.9% | -76.9% | +4292.9% |
| Apr 2008 | May 2008 | 4 | 4.9% | -63.6% | +4320.7% |
| Jun 2008 | Dec 2009 | 80 | 84.0% | -51.4% | +4121.9% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 1 | 4.6% | -17.4% | +4860.5% |
| May 2010 | Apr 2011 | 46 | 36.5% | +4.6% | +4969.7% |
| Jun 2011 | Jun 2011 | 1 | 4.0% | +72.7% | +5658.5% |
| Jul 2011 | Oct 2011 | 13 | 29.0% | +92.0% | +5532.1% |
| Oct 2015 | Jan 2017 | 67 | 54.6% | -3.2% | +1655.8% |
| Jun 2017 | Nov 2017 | 20 | 23.0% | +54.0% | +1474.3% |
| Nov 2017 | Dec 2017 | 1 | 0.4% | +15.7% | +1430.5% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 1 | 0.3% | +55.2% | +1368.6% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 5.7% | +61.3% | +1378.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 1.8% | +93.2% | +1208.0% |
| Sep 2022 | Jan 2023 | 18 | 20.0% | +19.6% | +733.2% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 3 | 4.1% | +56.4% | +660.3% |
| Apr 2023 | Jul 2023 | 15 | 12.3% | +51.8% | +722.7% |
| Aug 2023 | Aug 2023 | 2 | 0.3% | +63.5% | +613.5% |
| Sep 2023 | Sep 2023 | 1 | 1.7% | +65.7% | +620.2% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 13.4% | N/A | +550.5% |
| Average | 15 | — | +27.2% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02