STWD
Starwood Property Trust, Inc. Financial Services - Commercial Mortgage Investor Relations →
Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) closed at $15.98 as of 2026-07-31, trading 1.0% above its 200-week moving average of $15.82. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 4.5% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 28, STWD is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.05 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 837 weeks of data, STWD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 9 weeks. Historically, investors who bought STWD at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +32.4%.
With a market cap of $6.1 billion, STWD is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 5.3%. The stock trades at 0.9x book value.
Share count has increased 19.3% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 16.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in STWD would have grown to $474, compared to $900 for the S&P 500. STWD has returned 10.2% annualized vs 14.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 55.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: STWD vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After STWD Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying STWD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +48.5% after 12 months (median +29.0%), compared to +27.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +65.2% vs +53.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment STWD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices STWD would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where STWD's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-06.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $15.03 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $15.68 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $16.39 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $17.16 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $18.02 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from STWD's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
STWD has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +32.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2010 | Aug 2010 | 3 | 4.3% | +23.5% | +372.4% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 11 | 7.9% | +36.6% | +332.7% |
| Nov 2011 | Dec 2011 | 2 | 3.8% | +40.5% | +335.1% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 6 | 6.9% | +36.7% | +139.7% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 36 | 49.7% | +53.9% | +69.8% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 1 | 0.7% | +17.8% | +28.2% |
| Mar 2023 | May 2023 | 12 | 9.6% | +23.5% | +24.8% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 0.9% | +26.8% | +22.0% |
| Average | 9 | — | +32.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STWD below its 200-week moving average?
No. Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) is currently 1.0% above its 200-week moving average of $15.82. It would need to fall to $15.82 to cross below the line.
What is STWD's 200-week moving average price?
Starwood Property Trust, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $15.82 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when STWD drops below its 200-week moving average?
STWD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +32.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 9 weeks on average.
Is STWD a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about STWD as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 28 (oversold). Return on equity is 5.3%. Price-to-book is 0.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does STWD compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 16.1 years, $100 invested in STWD would have grown to $474, compared to $900 for the S&P 500. That's 10.2% annualized vs 14.6% for the index. STWD has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does STWD pay a dividend?
Yes. Starwood Property Trust, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 1183.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31