STLD
Steel Dynamics Inc. Materials - Steel Investor Relations →
Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD) closed at $229.27 as of 2026-05-01, trading 88.0% above its 200-week moving average of $121.96. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 87.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 68, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.91 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1488 weeks of data, STLD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times. On average, these episodes lasted 39 weeks. Historically, investors who bought STLD at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +6.0%.
With a market cap of $33.1 billion, STLD is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 15.2%, a solid level. The stock trades at 3.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 16.2% over the past three years.
Over the past 28.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in STLD would have grown to $6836, compared to $1277 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.9% vs 9.3% for the index — confirming STLD as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -47.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: STLD vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After STLD Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying STLD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +3.9% after 12 months (median +8.0%), compared to +14.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +54.9% vs +38.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment STLD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
STLD has crossed below its 200-week MA 14 times with an average 1-year return of +6.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1997 | Mar 1998 | 21 | 27.1% | -35.9% | +6736.4% |
| Apr 1998 | Apr 1998 | 1 | 0.9% | -20.0% | +6838.4% |
| May 1998 | Feb 2002 | 195 | 49.1% | -17.5% | +6776.8% |
| Aug 2002 | Sep 2002 | 2 | 11.3% | +33.7% | +11916.0% |
| Sep 2002 | May 2003 | 35 | 16.0% | +16.4% | +10897.2% |
| Sep 2008 | Jan 2011 | 122 | 65.0% | +21.3% | +2724.1% |
| Feb 2011 | Mar 2011 | 4 | 1.9% | -17.4% | +1663.5% |
| Apr 2011 | Jan 2012 | 41 | 43.0% | -20.5% | +1717.2% |
| Feb 2012 | Dec 2012 | 47 | 27.4% | +4.4% | +1942.2% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 2 | 2.5% | +129.6% | +1670.2% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 3.2% | +19.4% | +790.3% |
| Apr 2019 | Apr 2019 | 1 | 0.6% | -22.8% | +737.9% |
| May 2019 | Nov 2019 | 28 | 21.6% | -22.3% | +781.5% |
| Dec 2019 | Nov 2020 | 45 | 44.3% | +15.3% | +684.3% |
| Average | 39 | — | +6.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STLD below its 200-week moving average?
No. Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD) is currently 88.0% above its 200-week moving average of $121.96. It would need to fall to $121.96 to cross below the line.
What is STLD's 200-week moving average price?
Steel Dynamics Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $121.96 as of 2026-05-01. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when STLD drops below its 200-week moving average?
STLD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +6.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 39 weeks on average.
Is STLD a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about STLD as of 2026-05-01: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 68. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 15.2%. Price-to-book is 3.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does STLD compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 28.6 years, $100 invested in STLD would have grown to $6836, compared to $1277 for the S&P 500. That's 15.9% annualized vs 9.3% for the index. STLD has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does STLD pay a dividend?
Yes. Steel Dynamics Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 89.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-01