STLD
Steel Dynamics Inc. Materials - Steel Investor Relations →
Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD) closed at $249.91 as of 2026-06-19, trading 94.8% above its 200-week moving average of $128.31. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 121.9% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 73, STLD is in overbought territory.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.1x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 1495 weeks of data, STLD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times. On average, these episodes lasted 39 weeks. Historically, investors who bought STLD at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +6.0%.
With a market cap of $36.0 billion, STLD is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 15.2%, a solid level. The stock trades at 4.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 16.2% over the past three years.
Over the past 28.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in STLD would have grown to $7452, compared to $1331 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.2% vs 9.4% for the index — confirming STLD as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -47.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: STLD vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After STLD Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying STLD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +3.9% after 12 months (median +8.0%), compared to +14.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +54.9% vs +38.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment STLD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices STLD would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where STLD's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $159.06 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $177.00 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $199.51 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $228.58 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $267.56 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from STLD's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
STLD has crossed below its 200-week MA 14 times with an average 1-year return of +6.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1997 | Mar 1998 | 21 | 27.1% | -35.9% | +7351.8% |
| Apr 1998 | Apr 1998 | 1 | 0.9% | -20.0% | +7463.0% |
| May 1998 | Feb 2002 | 195 | 49.1% | -17.5% | +7395.9% |
| Aug 2002 | Sep 2002 | 2 | 11.3% | +33.7% | +12997.7% |
| Sep 2002 | May 2003 | 35 | 16.0% | +16.4% | +11887.2% |
| Sep 2008 | Jan 2011 | 122 | 65.0% | +21.3% | +2978.3% |
| Feb 2011 | Mar 2011 | 4 | 1.9% | -17.4% | +1822.2% |
| Apr 2011 | Jan 2012 | 41 | 43.0% | -20.5% | +1880.8% |
| Feb 2012 | Dec 2012 | 47 | 27.4% | +4.4% | +2126.0% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 2 | 2.5% | +129.6% | +1829.6% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 3.2% | +19.4% | +870.4% |
| Apr 2019 | Apr 2019 | 1 | 0.6% | -22.8% | +813.4% |
| May 2019 | Nov 2019 | 28 | 21.6% | -22.3% | +860.8% |
| Dec 2019 | Nov 2020 | 45 | 44.3% | +15.3% | +754.9% |
| Average | 39 | — | +6.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STLD below its 200-week moving average?
No. Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD) is currently 94.8% above its 200-week moving average of $128.31. It would need to fall to $128.31 to cross below the line.
What is STLD's 200-week moving average price?
Steel Dynamics Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $128.31 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when STLD drops below its 200-week moving average?
STLD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +6.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 39 weeks on average.
Is STLD a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about STLD as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 73 (overbought). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 15.2%. Price-to-book is 4.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does STLD compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 28.8 years, $100 invested in STLD would have grown to $7452, compared to $1331 for the S&P 500. That's 16.2% annualized vs 9.4% for the index. STLD has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does STLD pay a dividend?
Yes. Steel Dynamics Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 77.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19