STLD
Steel Dynamics Inc. Materials - Steel Investor Relations →
Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD) closed at $235.26 as of 2026-09-18, trading 69.9% above its 200-week moving average of $138.47. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 74.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 35, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.84 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1508 weeks of data, STLD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times. On average, these episodes lasted 39 weeks. Historically, investors who bought STLD at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +6.0%.
With a market cap of $33.7 billion, STLD is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.7%. Return on equity stands at 17.6%, a solid level. The stock trades at 3.6x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 16.2% over the past three years. STLD passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 29 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in STLD would have grown to $7031, compared to $1361 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.8% vs 9.4% for the index — confirming STLD as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -47.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: STLD vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After STLD Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying STLD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +4.0% after 12 months (median +8.0%), compared to +14.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +55.1% vs +38.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment STLD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices STLD would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where STLD's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-19.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $217.60 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $236.18 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $258.24 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $284.84 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $317.55 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | $3.67 | $3.69 | +0.6% |
| 2026-04-20 | $2.79 | $2.78 | -0.2% |
| 2026-01-26 | $1.69 | $1.82 | +7.9% |
| 2025-10-20 | $2.63 | $2.74 | +4.2% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from STLD's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
STLD has crossed below its 200-week MA 14 times with an average 1-year return of +6.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1997 | Mar 1998 | 21 | 27.1% | -35.9% | +6930.9% |
| Apr 1998 | Apr 1998 | 1 | 0.9% | -20.0% | +7035.8% |
| May 1998 | Feb 2002 | 195 | 49.1% | -17.5% | +6972.5% |
| Aug 2002 | Sep 2002 | 2 | 11.3% | +33.7% | +12257.9% |
| Sep 2002 | May 2003 | 35 | 16.0% | +16.4% | +11210.1% |
| Sep 2008 | Jan 2011 | 122 | 65.0% | +21.8% | +2804.5% |
| Feb 2011 | Mar 2011 | 4 | 1.9% | -17.4% | +1713.6% |
| Apr 2011 | Jan 2012 | 41 | 42.5% | -20.5% | +1768.9% |
| Feb 2012 | Dec 2012 | 47 | 27.4% | +4.4% | +2000.3% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 2 | 2.6% | +129.6% | +1720.6% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 2.6% | +19.4% | +815.6% |
| Apr 2019 | Apr 2019 | 1 | 0.7% | -22.8% | +761.8% |
| May 2019 | Nov 2019 | 28 | 21.6% | -22.3% | +806.6% |
| Dec 2019 | Nov 2020 | 45 | 44.4% | +15.3% | +701.0% |
| Average | 39 | — | +6.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STLD below its 200-week moving average?
No. Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD) is currently 69.9% above its 200-week moving average of $138.47. It would need to fall to $138.47 to cross below the line.
What is STLD's 200-week moving average price?
Steel Dynamics Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $138.47 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when STLD drops below its 200-week moving average?
STLD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +6.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 39 weeks on average.
Is STLD a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about STLD as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 35. Free cash flow yield is 0.7%. Return on equity is 17.6%. Price-to-book is 3.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does STLD compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 29 years, $100 invested in STLD would have grown to $7031, compared to $1361 for the S&P 500. That's 15.8% annualized vs 9.4% for the index. STLD has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does STLD pay a dividend?
Yes. Steel Dynamics Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 90.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18