STLD
Steel Dynamics Inc. Materials - Steel Investor Relations →
Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD) closed at $202.39 as of 2026-02-02, trading 75.5% above its 200-week moving average of $115.32. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 56.5% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 80, STLD is in overbought territory.
Over the past 1476 weeks of data, STLD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times. On average, these episodes lasted 39 weeks. Historically, investors who bought STLD at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +6.0%.
With a market cap of $29.8 billion, STLD is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 13.3%. The stock trades at 3.3x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 22.5% over the past three years.
Over the past 28.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in STLD would have grown to $6016, compared to $1224 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.5% vs 9.2% for the index — confirming STLD as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: STLD vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After STLD Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying STLD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +3.9% after 12 months (median +8.0%), compared to +14.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +54.9% vs +38.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment STLD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
STLD has crossed below its 200-week MA 14 times with an average 1-year return of +6.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1997 | Mar 1998 | 21 | 27.1% | -35.9% | +5916.3% |
| Apr 1998 | Apr 1998 | 1 | 0.9% | -20.0% | +6006.0% |
| May 1998 | Feb 2002 | 195 | 49.1% | -17.5% | +5951.9% |
| Aug 2002 | Sep 2002 | 2 | 11.3% | +33.7% | +10474.5% |
| Sep 2002 | May 2003 | 35 | 16.0% | +16.4% | +9577.9% |
| Sep 2008 | Jan 2011 | 122 | 65.0% | +21.3% | +2385.3% |
| Feb 2011 | Mar 2011 | 4 | 1.9% | -17.4% | +1451.9% |
| Apr 2011 | Jan 2012 | 41 | 43.0% | -20.5% | +1499.2% |
| Feb 2012 | Dec 2012 | 47 | 27.4% | +4.4% | +1697.2% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 2 | 2.5% | +129.6% | +1457.8% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 3.2% | +19.4% | +683.5% |
| Apr 2019 | Apr 2019 | 1 | 0.6% | -22.8% | +637.4% |
| May 2019 | Nov 2019 | 28 | 21.6% | -22.3% | +675.7% |
| Dec 2019 | Nov 2020 | 45 | 44.3% | +15.3% | +590.2% |
| Average | 39 | — | +6.0% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02