STAG
STAG Industrial, Inc. Real Estate - Industrial Investor Relations →
STAG Industrial, Inc. (STAG) closed at $37.14 as of 2026-09-11, trading 9.6% above its 200-week moving average of $33.90. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 11.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 51, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.09 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 756 weeks of data, STAG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 3 weeks. Historically, investors who bought STAG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +34.2%.
With a market cap of $7.3 billion, STAG is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.4%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 7.0%. The stock trades at 2.0x book value.
Share count has increased 6.6% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 14.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in STAG would have grown to $550, compared to $696 for the S&P 500. STAG has returned 12.4% annualized vs 14.2% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 6.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: STAG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After STAG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying STAG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +33.7% after 12 months (median +27.0%), compared to +23.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +55.9% vs +50.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment STAG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices STAG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where STAG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $36.11 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $38.01 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $40.11 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $42.46 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $45.10 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | $0.27 | $0.28 | +3.6% |
| 2026-04-28 | $0.24 | $0.25 | +2.1% |
| 2026-02-11 | $0.24 | $0.25 | +5.1% |
| 2025-10-29 | $0.26 | $0.26 | +1.4% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from STAG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
STAG has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +34.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2015 | Sep 2015 | 3 | 4.5% | +50.8% | +260.4% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 8 | 16.3% | +44.9% | +239.4% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 4 | 12.6% | +45.4% | +100.6% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 1 | 5.9% | +61.3% | +107.5% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 0.2% | +26.2% | +45.4% |
| Jul 2022 | Jul 2022 | 1 | 2.0% | +32.7% | +47.3% |
| Aug 2022 | Sep 2022 | 1 | 1.0% | +27.4% | +44.1% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 5 | 10.5% | +22.7% | +47.4% |
| Dec 2024 | Jan 2025 | 3 | 4.4% | +14.7% | +17.2% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 4 | 6.9% | +15.9% | +18.9% |
| Average | 3 | — | +34.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STAG below its 200-week moving average?
No. STAG Industrial, Inc. (STAG) is currently 9.6% above its 200-week moving average of $33.90. It would need to fall to $33.90 to cross below the line.
What is STAG's 200-week moving average price?
STAG Industrial, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $33.90 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when STAG drops below its 200-week moving average?
STAG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +34.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 3 weeks on average.
Is STAG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about STAG as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 51. Free cash flow yield is 6.4%. Return on equity is 7.0%. Price-to-book is 2.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does STAG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 14.6 years, $100 invested in STAG would have grown to $550, compared to $696 for the S&P 500. That's 12.4% annualized vs 14.2% for the index. STAG has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does STAG pay a dividend?
Yes. STAG Industrial, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 417.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11