SPY
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Index Fund Investor Relations →
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed at $738.93 as of 2026-07-24, trading 38.2% above its 200-week moving average of $534.85. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 39.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 61, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.93 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1699 weeks of data, SPY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times. On average, these episodes lasted 29 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SPY at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +7.6%.
Over the past 32.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SPY would have grown to $2796, compared to $2724 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 10.8% vs 10.7% for the index — confirming SPY as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Growth of $100: SPY vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SPY Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying SPY when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +5.6% after 12 months (median -1.0%), compared to +5.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 44% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +17.9% vs +15.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SPY crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from SPY's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
SPY has crossed below its 200-week MA 9 times with an average 1-year return of +7.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1994 | May 1994 | 7 | 0.8% | +15.3% | +2828.4% |
| Jun 1994 | Jul 1994 | 2 | 1.4% | +28.1% | +2844.3% |
| Mar 2001 | Apr 2001 | 5 | 6.0% | +2.7% | +911.9% |
| Jun 2001 | Jun 2001 | 1 | 0.1% | -15.9% | +852.4% |
| Jul 2001 | Dec 2003 | 130 | 34.1% | -15.4% | +874.8% |
| Jun 2008 | Aug 2008 | 5 | 2.9% | -27.0% | +713.2% |
| Sep 2008 | Mar 2010 | 82 | 44.5% | -15.8% | +725.6% |
| May 2010 | Oct 2010 | 22 | 12.1% | +23.0% | +786.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 10.0% | +73.0% | +252.2% |
| Average | 29 | — | +7.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SPY below its 200-week moving average?
No. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is currently 38.2% above its 200-week moving average of $534.85. It would need to fall to $534.85 to cross below the line.
What is SPY's 200-week moving average price?
SPDR S&P 500 ETF's 200-week moving average is $534.85 as of 2026-07-24. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when SPY drops below its 200-week moving average?
SPY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +7.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 29 weeks on average.
Is SPY a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about SPY as of 2026-07-24: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 61. Price-to-book is 1.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does SPY compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32.6 years, $100 invested in SPY would have grown to $2796, compared to $2724 for the S&P 500. That's 10.8% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. SPY has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does SPY pay a dividend?
Yes. SPDR S&P 500 ETF currently pays a dividend yield of 101.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-24