SPY
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Index Fund Investor Relations →
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed at $741.75 as of 2026-06-12, trading 41.3% above its 200-week moving average of $525.07. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 40.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 70, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.63 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 1693 weeks of data, SPY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SPY at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +7.6%.
Over the past 32.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SPY would have grown to $2800, compared to $2727 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 10.8% vs 10.7% for the index — confirming SPY as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Growth of $100: SPY vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SPY Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying SPY when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +5.6% after 12 months (median -1.0%), compared to +5.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 44% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +17.9% vs +16.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SPY crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from SPY's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
SPY has crossed below its 200-week MA 9 times with an average 1-year return of +7.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1994 | May 1994 | 7 | 0.8% | +15.3% | +2832.1% |
| Jun 1994 | Jul 1994 | 2 | 1.3% | +28.1% | +2847.9% |
| Mar 2001 | Apr 2001 | 5 | 5.9% | +2.7% | +915.9% |
| Jun 2001 | Jun 2001 | 1 | 0.4% | -15.7% | +856.3% |
| Jul 2001 | Dec 2003 | 130 | 34.0% | -15.4% | +876.0% |
| Jun 2008 | Aug 2008 | 5 | 2.9% | -27.0% | +714.2% |
| Sep 2008 | Mar 2010 | 82 | 44.5% | -15.8% | +726.6% |
| May 2010 | Sep 2010 | 20 | 12.0% | +23.0% | +787.4% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 10.5% | +73.4% | +254.7% |
| Average | 28 | — | +7.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SPY below its 200-week moving average?
No. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is currently 41.3% above its 200-week moving average of $525.07. It would need to fall to $525.07 to cross below the line.
What is SPY's 200-week moving average price?
SPDR S&P 500 ETF's 200-week moving average is $525.07 as of 2026-06-12. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when SPY drops below its 200-week moving average?
SPY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +7.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 28 weeks on average.
Is SPY a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about SPY as of 2026-06-12: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 70. Price-to-book is 1.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does SPY compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32.5 years, $100 invested in SPY would have grown to $2800, compared to $2727 for the S&P 500. That's 10.8% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. SPY has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does SPY pay a dividend?
Yes. SPDR S&P 500 ETF currently pays a dividend yield of 98.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-12