SPSC
SPS Commerce, Inc. Technology - Supply Chain Software Investor Relations →
SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC) closed at $57.95 as of 2026-03-20, trading 61.0% below its 200-week moving average of $148.46. This places SPSC in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -59.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 29, SPSC is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.73 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 782 weeks of data, SPSC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SPSC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +59.9%.
With a market cap of $2.2 billion, SPSC is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.7%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 10.2%. The stock trades at 2.2x book value.
Share count has increased 3.8% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 15.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SPSC would have grown to $779, compared to $641 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.6% vs 13.1% for the index — confirming SPSC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 23.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: SPSC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SPSC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 5 historical episodes, buying SPSC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +30.2% after 12 months (median +20.0%), compared to +26.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +105.2% vs +43.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SPSC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
SPSC has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +59.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2016 | Jun 2016 | 20 | 29.8% | +42.6% | +141.1% |
| Feb 2017 | Jun 2017 | 19 | 14.0% | -6.7% | +101.9% |
| Jul 2017 | Feb 2018 | 34 | 23.9% | +24.4% | +87.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 6.8% | +179.3% | +58.5% |
| Feb 2025 | Ongoing | 58+ | 62.1% | Ongoing | -60.4% |
| Average | 26 | — | +59.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SPSC below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC) is trading 61.0% below its 200-week moving average of $148.46. The current price is $57.95.
What is SPSC's 200-week moving average price?
SPS Commerce, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $148.46 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when SPSC drops below its 200-week moving average?
SPSC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +59.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 26 weeks on average.
Is SPSC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about SPSC as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 29 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 5.7%. Return on equity is 10.2%. Price-to-book is 2.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does SPSC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 15.1 years, $100 invested in SPSC would have grown to $779, compared to $641 for the S&P 500. That's 14.6% annualized vs 13.1% for the index. SPSC has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20