SPOT
Spotify Technology S.A. Communication Services - Music Streaming Investor Relations →
Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT) closed at $422.61 as of 2026-02-02, trading 31.6% above its 200-week moving average of $321.09. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 56.5% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 20, SPOT is in oversold territory.
Over the past 361 weeks of data, SPOT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times. On average, these episodes lasted 38 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SPOT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +36.0%.
With a market cap of $87.0 billion, SPOT is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.9%. Return on equity stands at 22.6%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 9.5x book value.
Share count has increased 6.1% over three years, indicating dilution. SPOT passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SPOT would have grown to $304, compared to $272 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 17.2% vs 15.4% for the index — confirming SPOT as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 102.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Growth of $100: SPOT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SPOT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 4 historical episodes, buying SPOT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +41.0% after 12 months (median +84.0%), compared to +6.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +58.2% vs +40.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SPOT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
SPOT has crossed below its 200-week MA 4 times with an average 1-year return of +36.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2019 | Jul 2019 | 19 | 18.0% | -7.3% | +197.8% |
| Aug 2019 | Dec 2019 | 18 | 24.8% | +70.1% | +186.0% |
| Jan 2020 | May 2020 | 15 | 16.8% | +131.2% | +188.2% |
| Jan 2022 | Dec 2023 | 98 | 62.1% | -49.9% | +116.1% |
| Average | 38 | — | +36.0% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02