SPG
Simon Property Group Inc. Real Estate - Retail REITs Investor Relations →
Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG) closed at $211.33 as of 2026-06-19, trading 53.0% above its 200-week moving average of $138.10. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 57.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 73, SPG is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.83 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1648 weeks of data, SPG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SPG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +16.4%.
With a market cap of $80.3 billion, SPG is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.1%. Return on equity stands at 113.6%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 14.2x book value.
Over the past 31.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SPG would have grown to $4905, compared to $2858 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.1% vs 11.2% for the index — confirming SPG as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 0.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: SPG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SPG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying SPG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +16.4% after 12 months (median +20.0%), compared to +18.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 83% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +45.1% vs +34.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SPG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices SPG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where SPG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-03.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $186.16 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $192.45 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $199.19 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $206.42 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $214.19 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from SPG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
SPG has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +16.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1994 | Feb 1995 | 13 | 7.6% | +7.0% | +4778.7% |
| Apr 1995 | May 1995 | 2 | 0.6% | +5.0% | +4590.0% |
| Oct 1995 | Nov 1995 | 1 | 0.4% | +24.5% | +4508.3% |
| Jan 1996 | Jan 1996 | 1 | 0.7% | +43.6% | +4508.3% |
| Jan 1996 | Feb 1996 | 2 | 3.6% | +44.1% | +4645.7% |
| Apr 1996 | Apr 1996 | 2 | 0.9% | +47.8% | +4489.2% |
| Mar 1999 | Mar 1999 | 1 | 0.8% | +3.8% | +3276.2% |
| Sep 1999 | Apr 2000 | 32 | 13.4% | +3.7% | +3163.2% |
| May 2000 | Jul 2000 | 5 | 10.2% | +20.2% | +2959.9% |
| Jul 2000 | Dec 2000 | 18 | 10.5% | +25.3% | +2921.3% |
| Oct 2008 | Nov 2009 | 60 | 66.7% | -6.6% | +520.9% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 5 | 6.1% | +36.1% | +510.8% |
| Apr 2017 | Jun 2018 | 60 | 12.2% | -1.0% | +108.6% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 0.3% | -7.2% | +92.7% |
| May 2019 | May 2021 | 104 | 69.3% | -62.8% | +91.6% |
| Apr 2022 | Oct 2022 | 27 | 18.9% | +2.2% | +125.8% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 1 | 0.5% | +55.9% | +141.9% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 0.7% | +53.5% | +144.6% |
| Average | 19 | — | +16.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SPG below its 200-week moving average?
No. Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG) is currently 53.0% above its 200-week moving average of $138.10. It would need to fall to $138.10 to cross below the line.
What is SPG's 200-week moving average price?
Simon Property Group Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $138.10 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when SPG drops below its 200-week moving average?
SPG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +16.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.
Is SPG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about SPG as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 73 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 3.1%. Return on equity is 113.6%. Price-to-book is 14.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does SPG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 31.7 years, $100 invested in SPG would have grown to $4905, compared to $2858 for the S&P 500. That's 13.1% annualized vs 11.2% for the index. SPG has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does SPG pay a dividend?
Yes. Simon Property Group Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 409.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19