SPCE

Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. Industrials - Space Investor Relations →

YES
94.5% BELOW
↓ Approaching Was -93.9% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $45.98
14-Week RSI 33

Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) closed at $2.53 as of 2026-02-02, trading 94.5% below its 200-week moving average of $45.98. This places SPCE in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -93.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 33, indicating neutral momentum.

Over the past 388 weeks of data, SPCE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times. On average, these episodes lasted 81 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SPCE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +42.5%.

With a market cap of $185 million, SPCE is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -98.9%. The stock trades at 0.7x book value.

Share count has increased 155.6% over three years, indicating dilution.

Over the past 7.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SPCE would have grown to $1, compared to $267 for the S&P 500. SPCE has returned -44.1% annualized vs 14.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.

Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.

Growth of $100: SPCE vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After SPCE Crosses Below the Line?

Across 3 historical episodes, buying SPCE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +9.3% after 12 months (median +11.0%), compared to +1.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +40.3% vs +26.7% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SPCE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

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Historical Touches

SPCE has crossed below its 200-week MA 3 times with an average 1-year return of +42.5% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Sep 2018Dec 2018171.7%+4.2%-98.7%
Oct 2019Dec 2019728.2%+80.7%-98.7%
Nov 2021Ongoing220+98.0%Ongoing-99.2%
Average81+42.5%

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02