SPCE
Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. Industrials - Space Investor Relations →
Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) closed at $2.53 as of 2026-02-02, trading 94.5% below its 200-week moving average of $45.98. This places SPCE in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -93.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 33, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 388 weeks of data, SPCE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times. On average, these episodes lasted 81 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SPCE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +42.5%.
With a market cap of $185 million, SPCE is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -98.9%. The stock trades at 0.7x book value.
Share count has increased 155.6% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 7.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SPCE would have grown to $1, compared to $267 for the S&P 500. SPCE has returned -44.1% annualized vs 14.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: SPCE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SPCE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 3 historical episodes, buying SPCE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +9.3% after 12 months (median +11.0%), compared to +1.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +40.3% vs +26.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SPCE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
SPCE has crossed below its 200-week MA 3 times with an average 1-year return of +42.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2018 | Dec 2018 | 17 | 1.7% | +4.2% | -98.7% |
| Oct 2019 | Dec 2019 | 7 | 28.2% | +80.7% | -98.7% |
| Nov 2021 | Ongoing | 220+ | 98.0% | Ongoing | -99.2% |
| Average | 81 | — | +42.5% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02