SMTC
Semtech Corporation Technology - Semiconductors Investor Relations →
Semtech Corporation (SMTC) closed at $158.23 as of 2026-06-19, trading 248.6% above its 200-week moving average of $45.39. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 271.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 78, SMTC is in overbought territory.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.5x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 2365 weeks of data, SMTC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times. On average, these episodes lasted 32 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SMTC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +40.0%.
With a market cap of $14.7 billion, SMTC is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.9%. Return on equity stands at -5.8%. The stock trades at 25.7x book value.
Share count has increased 45.1% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SMTC would have grown to $47101, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 20.2% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming SMTC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 18.9% compound annual rate, with 2 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: SMTC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SMTC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 27 historical episodes, buying SMTC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +62.5% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +9.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +268.2% vs +24.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SMTC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices SMTC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where SMTC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-24.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $94.35 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $108.52 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $127.70 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $155.12 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $197.53 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from SMTC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
SMTC has crossed below its 200-week MA 35 times with an average 1-year return of +40.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Feb 1983 | 102 | 59.4% | -50.8% | +15974.2% |
| Feb 1983 | Apr 1983 | 7 | 8.8% | -18.4% | +20566.8% |
| Oct 1983 | Nov 1983 | 4 | 6.3% | -42.3% | +19374.5% |
| Dec 1983 | May 1987 | 179 | 71.2% | -54.0% | +20153.4% |
| Jul 1987 | Aug 1987 | 2 | 2.1% | +37.0% | +37406.4% |
| Oct 1987 | Jan 1988 | 11 | 28.2% | +50.0% | +42094.7% |
| Jun 1989 | Jun 1989 | 2 | 7.2% | -45.8% | +42094.7% |
| Jul 1989 | Apr 1991 | 92 | 69.6% | -52.2% | +43929.2% |
| May 1991 | May 1991 | 1 | 3.5% | -33.3% | +48122.5% |
| Jul 1991 | Jul 1991 | 3 | 6.9% | -50.0% | +50533.6% |
| Aug 1991 | Aug 1991 | 1 | 1.3% | -33.3% | +48122.5% |
| Sep 1991 | Dec 1992 | 68 | 46.4% | -40.0% | +50533.6% |
| Mar 1993 | Apr 1993 | 1 | 0.0% | +31.2% | +63192.0% |
| Apr 1993 | May 1993 | 3 | 5.3% | +46.7% | +67411.5% |
| Jul 1993 | Sep 1993 | 9 | 12.6% | +36.7% | +67411.5% |
| Oct 1993 | Nov 1993 | 4 | 3.0% | +36.7% | +67411.5% |
| Nov 1993 | Nov 1993 | 1 | 6.0% | +58.6% | +69739.3% |
| Jul 1996 | Jul 1996 | 3 | 15.0% | +432.8% | +16501.2% |
| Sep 1996 | Sep 1996 | 1 | 1.8% | +646.1% | +15723.0% |
| Jul 1998 | Aug 1998 | 4 | 12.8% | +466.1% | +5822.1% |
| Jun 2002 | Jun 2002 | 1 | 0.4% | -42.0% | +511.9% |
| Jul 2002 | Nov 2005 | 177 | 66.3% | -29.2% | +575.0% |
| Dec 2005 | Jan 2006 | 7 | 8.3% | -30.7% | +739.9% |
| Feb 2006 | Sep 2007 | 81 | 39.4% | -17.2% | +756.7% |
| Oct 2007 | Apr 2008 | 27 | 30.5% | -41.1% | +818.3% |
| Jun 2008 | May 2009 | 50 | 40.0% | +4.0% | +877.3% |
| Dec 2013 | Jun 2014 | 24 | 14.6% | +12.8% | +553.8% |
| Jun 2014 | Sep 2014 | 10 | 17.8% | -19.3% | +505.3% |
| Oct 2014 | Dec 2014 | 8 | 15.2% | -26.1% | +598.9% |
| Jan 2015 | Feb 2015 | 4 | 5.4% | -29.1% | +502.6% |
| Mar 2015 | Aug 2016 | 72 | 43.8% | -19.5% | +494.0% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 4 | 4.5% | +56.9% | +529.1% |
| Feb 2020 | Apr 2020 | 6 | 19.8% | +85.6% | +300.7% |
| Jun 2022 | Nov 2024 | 127 | 72.2% | -58.7% | +189.2% |
| Feb 2025 | Jun 2025 | 19 | 39.8% | +133.1% | +323.3% |
| Average | 32 | — | +40.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SMTC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Semtech Corporation (SMTC) is currently 248.6% above its 200-week moving average of $45.39. It would need to fall to $45.39 to cross below the line.
What is SMTC's 200-week moving average price?
Semtech Corporation's 200-week moving average is $45.39 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when SMTC drops below its 200-week moving average?
SMTC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +40.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 32 weeks on average.
Is SMTC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about SMTC as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 78 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 0.9%. Return on equity is -5.8%. Price-to-book is 25.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does SMTC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in SMTC would have grown to $47101, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 20.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. SMTC has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19