SMTC
Semtech Corporation Technology - Semiconductors Investor Relations →
Semtech Corporation (SMTC) closed at $86.50 as of 2026-02-02, trading 114.4% above its 200-week moving average of $40.35. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 98.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 68, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 2346 weeks of data, SMTC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times. On average, these episodes lasted 32 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SMTC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +37.3%.
With a market cap of $8.0 billion, SMTC is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.6%. Return on equity stands at 13.4%. The stock trades at 14.1x book value.
Share count has increased 34.6% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SMTC would have grown to $25749, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 18.2% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming SMTC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -37.2% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: SMTC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SMTC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 27 historical episodes, buying SMTC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +62.0% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +9.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +268.2% vs +24.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SMTC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
SMTC has crossed below its 200-week MA 35 times with an average 1-year return of +37.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Feb 1983 | 102 | 59.4% | -50.8% | +8687.3% |
| Feb 1983 | Apr 1983 | 7 | 8.8% | -18.4% | +11198.0% |
| Oct 1983 | Nov 1983 | 4 | 6.3% | -42.3% | +10546.2% |
| Dec 1983 | May 1987 | 179 | 71.2% | -54.0% | +10972.0% |
| Jul 1987 | Aug 1987 | 2 | 2.1% | +37.0% | +20403.7% |
| Oct 1987 | Jan 1988 | 11 | 28.2% | +50.0% | +22966.7% |
| Jun 1989 | Jun 1989 | 2 | 7.2% | -45.8% | +22966.7% |
| Jul 1989 | Apr 1991 | 92 | 69.6% | -52.2% | +23969.6% |
| May 1991 | May 1991 | 1 | 3.5% | -33.3% | +26261.9% |
| Jul 1991 | Jul 1991 | 3 | 6.9% | -50.0% | +27580.0% |
| Aug 1991 | Aug 1991 | 1 | 1.3% | -33.3% | +26261.9% |
| Sep 1991 | Dec 1992 | 68 | 46.4% | -40.0% | +27580.0% |
| Mar 1993 | Apr 1993 | 1 | 0.0% | +31.2% | +34500.0% |
| Apr 1993 | May 1993 | 3 | 5.3% | +46.7% | +36806.7% |
| Jul 1993 | Sep 1993 | 9 | 12.6% | +36.7% | +36806.7% |
| Oct 1993 | Nov 1993 | 4 | 3.0% | +36.7% | +36806.7% |
| Nov 1993 | Nov 1993 | 1 | 6.0% | +58.6% | +38079.2% |
| Jul 1996 | Jul 1996 | 3 | 15.0% | +432.8% | +8975.4% |
| Sep 1996 | Sep 1996 | 1 | 1.8% | +646.1% | +8550.0% |
| Jul 1998 | Aug 1998 | 4 | 12.8% | +466.1% | +3137.4% |
| Jun 2002 | Jun 2002 | 1 | 0.4% | -42.0% | +234.5% |
| Jul 2002 | Nov 2005 | 177 | 66.3% | -29.2% | +269.0% |
| Dec 2005 | Jan 2006 | 7 | 8.3% | -30.7% | +359.1% |
| Feb 2006 | Sep 2007 | 81 | 39.4% | -17.2% | +368.3% |
| Oct 2007 | Apr 2008 | 27 | 30.5% | -41.1% | +402.0% |
| Jun 2008 | May 2009 | 50 | 40.0% | +4.0% | +434.3% |
| Dec 2013 | Jun 2014 | 24 | 14.6% | +12.8% | +257.4% |
| Jun 2014 | Sep 2014 | 10 | 17.8% | -19.3% | +230.9% |
| Oct 2014 | Dec 2014 | 8 | 15.2% | -26.1% | +282.1% |
| Jan 2015 | Feb 2015 | 4 | 5.4% | -29.1% | +229.4% |
| Mar 2015 | Aug 2016 | 72 | 43.8% | -19.5% | +224.7% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 4 | 4.5% | +56.9% | +243.9% |
| Feb 2020 | Apr 2020 | 6 | 19.8% | +85.6% | +119.0% |
| Jun 2022 | Nov 2024 | 127 | 72.2% | -58.7% | +58.1% |
| Feb 2025 | Jun 2025 | 19 | 39.8% | N/A | +131.4% |
| Average | 32 | — | +37.3% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02