SMCI
Super Micro Computer Inc. Technology - Computer Hardware Investor Relations →
Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) closed at $30.66 as of 2026-06-19, trading 17.2% below its 200-week moving average of $37.01. This places SMCI in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -17.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 50, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.74 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 955 weeks of data, SMCI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SMCI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +20.3%.
With a market cap of $19.8 billion, SMCI is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 17.9%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.4x book value.
Share count has increased 13.6% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 18.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SMCI would have grown to $3286, compared to $794 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 21.0% vs 12.0% for the index — confirming SMCI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: SMCI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SMCI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying SMCI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.7% after 12 months (median +4.0%), compared to +13.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 58% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +40.4% vs +30.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SMCI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. SMCI currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from SMCI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
SMCI has crossed below its 200-week MA 15 times with an average 1-year return of +20.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2008 | Aug 2008 | 22 | 20.7% | -48.0% | +3196.8% |
| Sep 2008 | Aug 2009 | 47 | 53.8% | -11.9% | +3384.1% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 1 | 2.8% | +34.7% | +3856.1% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 3 | 2.1% | +50.1% | +3291.6% |
| Aug 2012 | Aug 2012 | 2 | 1.6% | +8.5% | +2442.3% |
| Sep 2012 | Sep 2013 | 50 | 35.7% | +11.5% | +2448.6% |
| Jul 2016 | Sep 2016 | 9 | 10.3% | +28.2% | +1429.2% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 5 | 7.5% | +1.3% | +1265.7% |
| Apr 2017 | Jul 2017 | 16 | 5.4% | -33.3% | +1136.3% |
| Sep 2017 | Dec 2019 | 119 | 52.2% | -21.4% | +1090.7% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 6 | 22.8% | +128.4% | +1716.4% |
| Nov 2024 | Nov 2024 | 1 | 19.5% | +96.0% | +65.0% |
| Nov 2025 | Nov 2025 | 1 | 2.5% | N/A | -4.8% |
| Dec 2025 | May 2026 | 24 | 41.9% | N/A | -5.2% |
| Jun 2026 | Ongoing | 2+ | 17.4% | Ongoing | +0.7% |
| Average | 20 | — | +20.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SMCI below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) is trading 17.2% below its 200-week moving average of $37.01. The current price is $30.66.
What is SMCI's 200-week moving average price?
Super Micro Computer Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $37.01 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when SMCI drops below its 200-week moving average?
SMCI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +20.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is SMCI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about SMCI as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 50. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 17.9%. Price-to-book is 2.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does SMCI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 18.3 years, $100 invested in SMCI would have grown to $3286, compared to $794 for the S&P 500. That's 21.0% annualized vs 12.0% for the index. SMCI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19