SMCI
Super Micro Computer Inc. Technology - Computer Hardware Investor Relations →
Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) closed at $34.38 as of 2026-02-02, trading 0.5% below its 200-week moving average of $34.56. This places SMCI in the below line zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -15.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 27, SMCI is in oversold territory.
Over the past 936 weeks of data, SMCI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SMCI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +20.3%.
With a market cap of $20.5 billion, SMCI is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.6%. Return on equity stands at 13.2%. The stock trades at 2.9x book value.
Share count has increased 13.6% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 18 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SMCI would have grown to $3685, compared to $731 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 22.2% vs 11.7% for the index — confirming SMCI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: SMCI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SMCI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying SMCI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.7% after 12 months (median +4.0%), compared to +13.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 58% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +40.4% vs +30.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SMCI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
SMCI has crossed below its 200-week MA 14 times with an average 1-year return of +20.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2008 | Aug 2008 | 22 | 20.7% | -48.0% | +3596.8% |
| Sep 2008 | Aug 2009 | 47 | 53.8% | -11.9% | +3806.8% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 1 | 2.8% | +34.7% | +4336.1% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 3 | 2.1% | +50.1% | +3703.1% |
| Aug 2012 | Aug 2012 | 2 | 1.6% | +8.5% | +2750.7% |
| Sep 2012 | Sep 2013 | 50 | 35.7% | +11.5% | +2757.9% |
| Jul 2016 | Sep 2016 | 9 | 10.3% | +28.2% | +1614.7% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 5 | 7.5% | +1.3% | +1431.4% |
| Apr 2017 | Jul 2017 | 16 | 5.4% | -33.3% | +1286.3% |
| Sep 2017 | Dec 2019 | 119 | 52.2% | -21.4% | +1235.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 6 | 22.8% | +128.4% | +1936.7% |
| Nov 2024 | Nov 2024 | 1 | 19.5% | +96.0% | +85.0% |
| Nov 2025 | Nov 2025 | 1 | 2.5% | N/A | +6.8% |
| Dec 2025 | Ongoing | 9+ | 15.4% | Ongoing | +6.3% |
| Average | 21 | — | +20.3% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02